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Sudden stops and output: an empirical Markov switching analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Bachmann

    (University of Bern)

  • Stefan Leist

    (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO)

Abstract

Sudden stops and their negative effects on GDP have recently received increased attention because quantitative easing has led to substantial capital inflows into emerging economies. We extend the empirical literature on the impact of sudden stops on GDP by proposing an alternative econometric approach which is multivariate, nonlinear and uses a novel way to identify sudden stops. We estimate a Markov switching vector autoregression with a latent variable indicating whether the economy is in a sudden stop regime. We use the maximum fraction of forecast error variance approach for partial structural identification of the vector autoregression model. Beyond confirming findings from the existing empirical literature on sudden stops, our results additionally show that (i) sudden stops are associated with regime switches (i.e., breaks in the behavior of economic variables), which have significantly negative and permanent effects on GDP; (ii) impulse responses to net capital inflow shocks are regime dependent with economies being more vulnerable to shocks during the sudden stop regime; and (iii) there were different main drivers of the output decline in historical sudden stop episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Bachmann & Stefan Leist, 2017. "Sudden stops and output: an empirical Markov switching analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 525-567, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1141-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1141-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sudden stops; Capital flows; Economic growth; Markov switching; Forecast error variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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