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The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Terrie Walmsley

    (University of Southern California (USC))

  • Adam Rose

    (USC)

  • Dan Wei

    (USC)

Abstract

We present a formal analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., China and the rest of the world. Given the uncertainty regarding the severity and time-path of the infections and related conditions, we examine three scenarios, ranging from a relatively moderate event to a disaster. The study considers a comprehensive list of causal factors affecting the impacts, including: mandatory closures and the gradual re-opening process; decline in workforce due to morbidity, mortality and avoidance behavior; increased demand for health care; decreased demand for public transportation and leisure activities; potential resilience through telework; increased demand for communication services; and increased pent-up demand. We apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, a state-of-the-art economy-wide modeling technique. It traces the broader economic ramifications of individual responses of producers and consumers through supply chains both within and across countries. We project that the net U.S. GDP losses from COVID-19 would range from $3.2 trillion (14.8%) to $4.8 trillion (23.0%) in a 2-year period for the three scenarios. U.S. impacts are estimated to be higher than those for China and the ROW in percentage terms. The major factor affecting the results in all three scenarios is the combination of Mandatory Closures and Partial Reopenings of businesses. These alone would have resulted in a 22.3% to 60.6% decrease in U.S. GDP across the scenarios. Pent-up Demand, generated from the inability to spend during the Closures/Reopenings, is the second most influential factor, significantly offsetting the overall negative impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Terrie Walmsley & Adam Rose & Dan Wei, 2021. "The Impacts of the Coronavirus on the Economy of the United States," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-52, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:5:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-020-00080-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-020-00080-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Tianchu Lyu & Nicole Hair & Nicholas Yell & Zhenlong Li & Shan Qiao & Chen Liang & Xiaoming Li, 2021. "Temporal Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19 Pre-Infection Determinants of Risk in South Carolina," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Dormady, Noah C. & Rose, Adam & Roa-Henriquez, Alfredo & Morin, C. Blain, 2022. "The cost-effectiveness of economic resilience," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    5. Maliha Singh, 2023. "Public sentiment and opinion regarding the CARES Act," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 24-33, January.
    6. Xi He & Edward J. Balistreri & Gyu Hyun Kim & Wendong Zhang, 2022. "A general equilibrium assessment of COVID-19's labor productivity impacts on china's regional economies," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 129-150, December.
    7. Can Wang & Xianming Meng & Mahinda Siriwardana & Tien Pham, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese tourism industry," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(1), pages 131-152, February.
    8. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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