IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eaiere/v19y2022i1d10.1007_s40844-021-00208-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alternative monetary policy rules and expectational consistency

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Eduardo Iwai Drumond

    (State University of Santa Cruz (UESC))

  • Cleiton Silva Jesus

    (State University of Feira de Santana (UEFS))

  • João Basilio Pereima

    (Federal University of Paraná)

  • Hiroyuki Yoshida

    (Nihon University)

Abstract

We build a macroeconomic model that allows for non-linearity in the interest rate rule. We assume that to determine the rate of interest, the monetary authority considers the interaction between the actual inflation and the capacity utilization, so that the sensitivity of the interest rule to the inflation gap varies in accordance with the business cycle. The macroeconomic policy framework we propose enables the monetary authority to give as much weight to inflation as to the product without losing sight of the expected anchor role of the inflation target, for a closed economy as well as for an open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Iwai Drumond & Cleiton Silva Jesus & João Basilio Pereima & Hiroyuki Yoshida, 2022. "Alternative monetary policy rules and expectational consistency," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 319-341, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:19:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s40844-021-00208-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s40844-021-00208-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40844-021-00208-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40844-021-00208-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario A Bertella & Henio A Rego & Celso Neris Jr. & Jonathas N Silva & Boris Podobnik & H Eugene Stanley, 2015. "Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Dynamic Nonlinear Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-146, August.
    3. Cleiton Silva de Jesus & Fernando Motta Correia, 2016. "Active fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(5), pages 749-762, October.
    4. Mark Setterfield, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: lessons for revising the EU Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 623-643, July.
    5. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Mark Setterfield, 2007. "Interest rates, income distribution, and monetary policy dominance: Post Keynesians and the "fair rate" of interest," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 13-42.
    6. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter, 2011. "The Dynamics of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521180184, January.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    9. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield, 2008. "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 435-461, April.
    11. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    12. Cukierman Alex & Muscatelli Anton, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, February.
    13. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    14. Mark Setterfield, 2019. "Long-run variation in capacity utilization in the presence of a fixed normal rate," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(2), pages 443-463.
    15. Alan S. Blinder, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring.
    16. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Tarik Mouakil & Christian Proaño & Willi Semmler, 2011. "Stock‐Flow Interactions, Disequilibrium Macroeconomics And The Role Of Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 569-599, July.
    17. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    18. Yoshida, Hiroyuki & Asada, Toichiro, 2007. "Dynamic analysis of policy lag in a Keynes-Goodwin model: Stability, instability, cycles and chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 441-469, March.
    19. James Tobin, 1985. "Theoretical Issues in Macroeconomics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: George R. Feiwel (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Macroeconomics and Distribution, chapter 2, pages 103-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Porcile, Gabriel & de Souza, Alexandre Gomes & Viana, Ricardo, 2011. "External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-276, September.
    21. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-596, October.
    22. Asada, Toichiro & Semmler, Willi, 1995. "Growth and finance: An intertemporal model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 623-649.
    23. Mark Setterfield, 2006. "Is inflation targeting compatible with Post Keynesian economics?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 653-671.
    24. Carlos Drumond & Gabriel Porcile, 2012. "Inflation targeting in a developing economy: policy rules, growth, and stability," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 137-162.
    25. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
    26. Carlos Eduardo Drumond & Cleiton Silva De Jesus, 2016. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a post Keynesian open-economy model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 172-186, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2022. "Special feature: economic dynamics—growth, capital, labor, technology, and money," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 159-167, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    2. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    4. Mark Setterfield, 2014. "Using Interest Rates as the Instrument of Monetary Policy: Beware Real effects, Positive Feedbacks, and Discontinuities," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(70), pages 7-22, June.
    5. Leonardo Vera, 2014. "The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 526-548, October.
    6. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
    7. Emiliano Libman, 2019. "Destabilizing Balance Sheet Effects in the New Consensus Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 590-611, October.
    8. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Nidhal Mgadmi & Slim Chaouachi & Wajdi Moussa & Azza Bejaoui, 2021. "Does the Tunisian Central Bank follow an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, January.
    10. Komlan, Fiodendji, 2013. "The asymmetric reaction of monetary policy to inflation and the output gap: Evidence from Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 911-923.
    11. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "The conduct of monetary policy in the Eurozone before and after the financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 83-92.
    12. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    14. Cleiton Silva de Jesus & Thiago Rios Lopes & Silvana Dantas Guimarães, 2017. "Monetary policy credibility and inflation in an emerging economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 778-789.
    15. Raza, Hamid & Laurentjoye, Thibault & Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup & Valdecantos, Sebastian, 2023. "Inflation and the role of macroeconomic policies: A model for the case of Denmark," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 32-43.
    16. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    17. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    18. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 255-279, December.
    19. Eduardo F Bastian & Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2024. "Inflation regimes and hyperinflation: a Post-Keynesian/structuralist typology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 48(4), pages 681-708.
    20. Giorgos Argitis, 2011. "A view on post-Keynesian interest rate policy," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 91-112.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic dynamics; Non-linear interest rate rule; Expectational consistency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:19:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s40844-021-00208-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.