IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/dyngam/v11y2021i4d10.1007_s13235-021-00382-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Yang

    (Software College, Northeastern University)

Abstract

COVID-19 comes out as a sudden pandemic disease within human population. The pandemic dynamics of COVID-19 needs to be studied in detail. A pandemic model with hierarchical quarantine and time delay is proposed in this paper. In the COVID-19 case, the virus incubation period and the antibody failure will cause the time delay and reinfection, respectively, and the hierarchical quarantine strategy includes home isolation and quarantine in hospital. These factors that affect the spread of COVID-19 are well considered and analyzed in the model. The stability of the equilibrium and the nonlinear dynamics is studied as well. The threshold value $$\tau_{k}$$ τ k of the bifurcation is deduced and quantitatively analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to establish the analytical results with suitable examples. The research reveals that the COVID-19 outbreak may recur over a period of time, which can be helpful to increase the number of tested people with or without symptoms in order to be able to early identify the clusters of infection. And before the effective vaccine is successfully developed, the hierarchical quarantine strategy is currently the best way to prevent the spread of this pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Yang, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 892-914, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:dyngam:v:11:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s13235-021-00382-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s13235-021-00382-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13235-021-00382-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13235-021-00382-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Chengdai & Cao, Jinde & Xiao, Min & Alsaedi, Ahmed & Hayat, Tasawar, 2017. "Bifurcations in a delayed fractional complex-valued neural network," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 292(C), pages 210-227.
    2. Hu, Guang-Ping & Li, Xiao-Ling, 2012. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation for a delayed predator–prey model with disease in the prey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 229-237.
    3. Ren, Jianguo & Yang, Xiaofan & Yang, Lu-Xing & Xu, Yonghong & Yang, Fanzhou, 2012. "A delayed computer virus propagation model and its dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 74-79.
    4. Li, Li, 2015. "Bifurcation and chaos in a discrete physiological control system," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 397-404.
    5. Tao Dong & Xiaofeng Liao & Huaqing Li, 2012. "Stability and Hopf Bifurcation in a Computer Virus Model with Multistate Antivirus," Abstract and Applied Analysis, Hindawi, vol. 2012, pages 1-16, April.
    6. Qamar Din, 2017. "Global stability and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation of a host-parasitoid model," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 1194-1202, April.
    7. Raymond Gani & Steve Leach, 2001. "Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6865), pages 748-751, December.
    8. Tornatore, Elisabetta & Maria Buccellato, Stefania & Vetro, Pasquale, 2005. "Stability of a stochastic SIR system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 111-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vsevolod G. Sorokin & Andrei V. Vyazmin, 2022. "Nonlinear Reaction–Diffusion Equations with Delay: Partial Survey, Exact Solutions, Test Problems, and Numerical Integration," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-39, May.
    2. Andrei D. Polyanin & Vsevolod G. Sorokin, 2023. "Exact Solutions of Reaction–Diffusion PDEs with Anisotropic Time Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Yunhan Huang & Quanyan Zhu, 2022. "Game-Theoretic Frameworks for Epidemic Spreading and Human Decision-Making: A Review," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 7-48, March.
    4. Azhar Iqbal Kashif Butt & Saira Batool & Muhammad Imran & Muneerah Al Nuwairan, 2023. "Design and Analysis of a New COVID-19 Model with Comparative Study of Control Strategies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-29, April.
    5. Andrei D. Polyanin & Vsevolod G. Sorokin, 2023. "Reductions and Exact Solutions of Nonlinear Wave-Type PDEs with Proportional and More Complex Delays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Xiaowei & Chen, Xiangyong & Chi, Ming & Chen, Jie, 2020. "On Hopf bifurcation and control for a delay systems," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    2. Zizhen Zhang & Huizhong Yang, 2015. "Hopf Bifurcation of an SIQR Computer Virus Model with Time Delay," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-8, January.
    3. Tu, Zhengwen & Ding, Nan & Li, Liangliang & Feng, Yuming & Zou, Limin & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Adaptive synchronization of memristive neural networks with time-varying delays and reaction–diffusion term," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 311(C), pages 118-128.
    4. Li, Shuang & Xiong, Jie, 2024. "SIR epidemic model with non-Lipschitz stochastic perturbations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    5. Chen, Lijuan & Hattaf, Khalid & Sun, Jitao, 2015. "Optimal control of a delayed SLBS computer virus model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 244-250.
    6. Yonghong Xu & Jianguo Ren, 2016. "Propagation Effect of a Virus Outbreak on a Network with Limited Anti-Virus Ability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    7. Cheng, Yingying & Huo, Liang’an & Zhao, Laijun, 2020. "Rumor spreading in complex networks under stochastic node activity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    8. Eva K. Lee & Siddhartha Maheshwary & Jacquelyn Mason & William Glisson, 2006. "Large-Scale Dispensing for Emergency Response to Bioterrorism and Infectious-Disease Outbreak," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 591-607, December.
    9. Wanduku, Divine, 2017. "Complete global analysis of a two-scale network SIRS epidemic dynamic model with distributed delay and random perturbations," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 49-76.
    10. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2020. "The Economy, Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: Links and Policy Implications," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 811-824, August.
    11. Wang, Xinhe & Lu, Junwei & Wang, Zhen & Li, Yuxia, 2020. "Dynamics of discrete epidemic models on heterogeneous networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    12. Zhiming Li & Zhidong Teng, 2019. "Analysis of uncertain SIS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence and demography," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 475-491, December.
    13. Zhou, Yanli & Yuan, Sanling & Zhao, Dianli, 2016. "Threshold behavior of a stochastic SIS model with Le´vy jumps," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 255-267.
    14. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Shi, Ningzhong & Hayat, Tasawar & Ahmad, Bashir, 2017. "Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic SEIR epidemic model with standard incidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 476(C), pages 58-69.
    15. Lahmiri, Salim, 2018. "Minute-ahead stock price forecasting based on singular spectrum analysis and support vector regression," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 444-451.
    16. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing, 2020. "Threshold behavior in a stochastic SIR epidemic model with Logistic birth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    17. Yonatan Dinku & Boyd Hunter & Francis Markham, 2020. "How might COVID-19 affect the Indigenous labour market?," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 23(2), pages 189-209.
    18. Lahrouz, Aadil & Omari, Lahcen, 2013. "Extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with non-linear incidence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(4), pages 960-968.
    19. Jin-E Zhang, 2017. "Centralized and Decentralized Data-Sampling Principles for Outer-Synchronization of Fractional-Order Neural Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-11, March.
    20. Wang, Huanan & Huang, Chengdai & Liu, Heng & Cao, Jinde, 2023. "Detecting bifurcations in a fractional-order neural network with nonidentical delays via Cramer’s rule," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:dyngam:v:11:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s13235-021-00382-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.