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Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

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  • Roberto Dieci

    (University of Bologna)

  • Xue-Zhong He

    (University of Technology Sydney)

Abstract

This paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2021. "Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 727-754, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:decfin:v:44:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10203-021-00348-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10203-021-00348-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous beliefs; Asset pricing; Portfolio choice; Strategy switching; Bifurcation analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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