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A fuzzy polynomial fitting and mathematical programming approach for enhancing the accuracy and precision of productivity forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Toly Chen

    (National Chiao Tung University)

  • Chungwei Ou

    (Chang Yuan Christian University)

  • Yu-Cheng Lin

    (Overseas Chinese University)

Abstract

Forecasting future productivity is a critical task to every organization. However, the existing methods for productivity forecasting have two problems. First, the logarithmic or log-sigmoid value, rather than the original value, of productivity is dealt with. Second, the objective functions are not consistent with those adopted in practice. To address these problems, a fuzzy polynomial fitting and mathematical programming (FPF-MP) approach are proposed in this study. The FPF-MP approach solves two polynomial programming problems, based on the original value of productivity, in two steps to optimize accuracy and precision of forecasting future productivity, respectively. A real case was adopted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. According to the experimental results, the proposed FPF-MP approach outperformed six existing methods in improving the forecasting accuracy and precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Toly Chen & Chungwei Ou & Yu-Cheng Lin, 2019. "A fuzzy polynomial fitting and mathematical programming approach for enhancing the accuracy and precision of productivity forecasting," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 85-107, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:25:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10588-018-09287-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-018-09287-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Min-Chi Chiu & Tin-Chih Toly Chen & Keng-Wei Hsu, 2020. "Modeling an Uncertain Productivity Learning Process Using an Interval Fuzzy Methodology," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-18, June.

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