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The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information

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  • Robert Lempert
  • Michael Schlesinger
  • Steven Bankes
  • Natalia Andronova

Abstract

Variability is one of the most salient features of the earth's climate, yet quantitative policy studies have generally ignored the impact of variability on society's best choice of climate-change policy. This omission is troubling because an adaptive emissions-reduction strategy, one that adjusts abatement rates over time based on observations of damages and abatement costs, should perform much better against extreme uncertainty than static, best-estimate policies. However, climate variability can strongly affect the success of adaptive-abatement strategies by masking adverse trends or fooling society into taking too strong an action. This study compares the performance of a wide variety of adaptive greenhouse-gas-abatement strategies against a broad range of plausible future climate-change scenarios. We find that: i) adaptive strategies remain preferable to static, best-estimate policies even with very large levels of climate variability; ii) the most robust strategies are innovation sensitive, that is, adjust future emissions reduction rates on the basis of small changes in observed abatement costs but only for large changes in observed damages; and iii) information about the size of the variability is about a third to an eighth as valuable as information determining the value of the key parameters that represent the long-term, future climate-change state-of-the-world. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lempert & Michael Schlesinger & Steven Bankes & Natalia Andronova, 2000. "The Impacts of Climate Variability on Near-Term Policy Choices and the Value of Information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 129-161, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:45:y:2000:i:1:p:129-161
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005697118423
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Manne & Richard G. Richels, 1991. "Global CO2 Emission Reductions -the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 12(1), pages 87-108, January.
    2. Peck, Stephen C. & Teisberg, Thomas J., 1993. "Global warming uncertainties and the value of information: an analysis using CETA," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 71-97, March.
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    2. Davis, Casey B. & Hans, Christopher M. & Santner, Thomas J., 2021. "Prediction of non-stationary response functions using a Bayesian composite Gaussian process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    3. Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Quantifying Non-cooperative Climate Engineering," Working Papers 2017.58, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. J. Bickel & Shubham Agrawal, 2013. "Reexamining the economics of aerosol geoengineering," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 993-1006, August.
    5. Heutel, Garth & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Shayegh, Soheil, 2018. "Solar geoengineering, uncertainty, and the price of carbon," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-41.
    6. Ingham, Alan & Ma, Jie & Ulph, Alistair, 2007. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation with uncertainty and learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5354-5369, November.
    7. Mark P. Sharfman & Teresa M. Shaft & Robert P. Anex, 2009. "The road to cooperative supply‐chain environmental management: trust and uncertainty among pro‐active firms," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Kopp, Robert E. & Golub, Alexander & Keohane, Nathaniel O. & Onda, Chikara, 2012. "The influence of the specification of climate change damages on the social cost of carbon," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-40.
    9. Young Ryu & Young-Oh Kim & Seung Beom Seo & Il Won Seo, 2018. "Application of real option analysis for planning under climate change uncertainty: a case study for evaluation of flood mitigation plans in Korea," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 803-819, August.
    10. D'Amato, Alessio & Giaccherini, Matilde & Zoli, Mariangela, 2019. "The Role of Information Sources and Providers in Shaping Green Behaviors. Evidence from Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Kopp, Robert E. & Mignone, Bryan K., 2012. "The US government's social cost of carbon estimates after their first two years: Pathways for improvement," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-41.
    12. van der Zwaan, Bob & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2006. "Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the necessity to transform global energy supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2571-2587.

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