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Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?

Author

Listed:
  • Sarahi Nunez

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Eric Arets

    (Wageningen University and Research)

  • Rob Alkemade

    (Wageningen University and Research
    PBL-Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Caspar Verwer

    (IUCN National Committee of The Netherlands)

  • Rik Leemans

    (Wageningen University and Research)

Abstract

Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 °C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 °C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1–2 °C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 °C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarahi Nunez & Eric Arets & Rob Alkemade & Caspar Verwer & Rik Leemans, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 351-365, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02420-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02420-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. Warren & J. Price & J. VanDerWal & S. Cornelius & H. Sohl, 2018. "The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 395-409, April.
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    3. Manes, Stella & Vale, Mariana M. & Malecha, Artur & Pires, Aliny P.F., 2022. "Nature-based solutions promote climate change adaptation safeguarding ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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