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Changes in the spatial pattern of rice exposure to heat stress in China over recent decades

Author

Listed:
  • Pin Wang

    (Hangzhou Normal University
    Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change)

  • Tangao Hu

    (Hangzhou Normal University
    Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change)

  • Feng Kong

    (School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University)

  • Dengrong Zhang

    (Hangzhou Normal University
    Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change)

Abstract

Greater than 90% probability that heat waves will increase globally through the twenty-first century, poses a serious threat to China—the world’s largest rice producer. Under climate change, understanding whether and how the spatial pattern of rice exposure to heat stress (EHS) in China has changed is urgently required for adaptation optimization; however, it remains unclear. Here, we examined the changes in the area exposed to heat stress and historical movements of the geographical centroid of rice EHS over 1980–2015 across the major irrigated rice-growing areas in mainland China. Our results showed that the rice-planted area exposed to heat stress has generally increased especially over the 2010s and the geographical centroid of rice EHS has moved significantly throughout the past decades. Particularly, the northern parts of the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River witnessed a substantial spread in rice EHS since the 1990s, mainly detected in Jiangsu province; its EHS centroid moved northeastward significantly over the past decades. In southern China, the rice-planted area exposed to heat stress has increased more than threefold from the 2000s to 2010s, and the EHS centroid mainly wandered in the southern parts over the 2010s.

Suggested Citation

  • Pin Wang & Tangao Hu & Feng Kong & Dengrong Zhang, 2019. "Changes in the spatial pattern of rice exposure to heat stress in China over recent decades," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 229-240, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02433-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02433-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David B. Lobell & Adam Sibley & J. Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, 2012. "Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 186-189, March.
    2. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    3. Pin Wang & Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Xing Wei & Boyan Feng & Fulu Tao, 2016. "How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 635-650, February.
    4. Ethan E. Butler & Peter Huybers, 2013. "Adaptation of US maize to temperature variations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 68-72, January.
    5. Pin Wang & Zhao Zhang & Xiao Song & Yi Chen & Xing Wei & Peijun Shi & Fulu Tao, 2014. "Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 777-789, June.
    6. Pin Wang & Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Xing Wei & Boyan Feng & Fulu Tao, 2016. "How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 635-650, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ran Wang & Yao Jiang & Peng Su & Jing’ai Wang, 2019. "Global Spatial Distributions of and Trends in Rice Exposure to High Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-53, November.
    2. Shuai Zhang, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Change of Heat Stress and Its Impacts on Rice Growth in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, July.

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