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Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Pfrommer

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Timo Goeschl

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Alexander Proelss

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Martin Carrier

    (Bielefeld University)

  • Johannes Lenhard

    (Bielefeld University)

  • Henrike Martin

    (Trier University)

  • Ulrike Niemeier

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology)

  • Hauke Schmidt

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology)

Abstract

Climate litigation has attracted renewed interest as a governance tool. A key challenge in climate litigation is to assess the factual basis of causation. Extreme weather attribution, specifically the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), has been proposed as a way to tackle this challenge. What remains unclear is how attribution science interacts with the legal admissibility of evidence based on climate models. While evidence has to be legally admissible in order to be considered in a trial, it has to be reliable in order for the court to arrive at a legally correct conclusion. Since parties to the trial have incentives to produce evidence favorable to their case, admissibility requirements and the reliability of the evidence brought forward are linked. We provide a specific proposal for how to accommodate FAR estimates in admissibility standards by modifying an existing set of admissibility criteria, the Daubert criteria. We argue that two of the five Daubert criteria are unsuitable for dealing with such evidence and that replacing those criteria with ones directly addressing the reliability of FAR estimates is adequate. Lastly, we highlight the dependence of courts on both the existence and accessibility of a framework to determine the reliability of FAR estimates in executing such criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Pfrommer & Timo Goeschl & Alexander Proelss & Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard & Henrike Martin & Ulrike Niemeier & Hauke Schmidt, 2019. "Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 67-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2362-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael E. Mann & Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Naomi Oreskes, 2017. "Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 131-142, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Callan Harker & Maureen Hassall & Paul Lant & Nikodem Rybak & Paul Dargusch, 2022. "What Can Machine Learning Teach Us about Australian Climate Risk Disclosures?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Stecher, Michael & Baumgärtner, Stefan, 2024. "Quantifying agents’ causal responsibility in dynamical systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Emily Williams, 2020. "Attributing blame?—climate accountability and the uneven landscape of impacts, emissions, and finances," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 273-290, July.
    4. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Dana R. Fisher & Sohana Nasrin, 2021. "Climate activism and its effects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    6. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    7. Mittelstaedt, Christian & Baumgärtner, Stefan, 2022. "Attribution of Collective Causal Responsibility to Individual Actors in a Stochastic System," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264051, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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