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An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Ashrafun Nahar

    (Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University)

  • Jeff Luckstead

    (University of Arkansas Fayetteville)

  • Eric J. Wailes

    (University of Arkansas Fayetteville)

  • Mohammad Jahangir Alam

    (Bangladesh Agricultural University)

Abstract

Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO2 levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers’ welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers’ welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashrafun Nahar & Jeff Luckstead & Eric J. Wailes & Mohammad Jahangir Alam, 2018. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 289-304, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:150:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2267-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2267-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wencai Yang & Caiyao Xu & Fanbin Kong, 2022. "Does Non-Food Cultivation of Cropland Increase Farmers’ Income?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Prabal Barua & Syed Hafizur Rahman, 2020. "Resilience Of Agriculture Farmers For Crop Production In Responses To Climate Change Impact On South - Eastern Coast Of Bangladesh," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 28-37, April.
    3. Md Kamrul Hasan & Lalit Kumar, 2020. "Perceived farm-level climatic impacts on coastal agricultural productivity in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 617-636, August.
    4. Bairagi, Subir & Bhandari, Humnath & Kumar Das, Subrata & Mohanty, Samarendu, 2021. "Flood-tolerant rice improves climate resilience, profitability, and household consumption in Bangladesh," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Md. Arif Chowdhury & Rashed Uz Zzaman & Nusrat Jahan Tarin & Mohammad Jobayer Hossain, 2022. "Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2329-2351, February.

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