IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v143y2017i3d10.1007_s10584-017-2019-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • S. Strydom

    (University of KwaZulu-Natal)

  • M. J. Savage

    (University of KwaZulu-Natal)

Abstract

The influence of climate change on wildfires has been studied at a global scale, but uncertainties on the influence at regional and hyper-regional level still exist. As the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) midlands rely heavily on agro-forestry and tourism to support the local economy, changes in fire dynamics need to be taken into consideration. This study aims to investigate fire dynamics under different climatic scenarios for the KZN midlands, South Africa. Using 25 years of meteorological data allows for the stochastic generation of long-term meteorological data. Six climatic scenarios, describing a warmer and wetter climate and a warmer and drier climate, are used to adjust the generated data. The Lowveld fire danger index is applied to the adjusted data and analysed. Results indicat that annual average fire danger in the KZN midlands is likely to increase significantly under all climate scenarios. Annual average fire danger under baseline conditions (no climate adjustment) averages at roughly 25. When adjusted for the worst case scenario, the annual average fire danger increases to an average of roughly 28—a statistically significant difference. Increased air temperatures are shown to influence fire danger significantly. The KZN midlands are likely to experience an increased frequency of high fire danger days. Changes in daily rainfall are shown to significantly influence the onset and length of the KZN midlands’ fire season. Overall, the study indicates that the KZN midlands are likely to experience different fire dynamics under a changed climate, with significant implications for local landowners and local governments.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Strydom & M. J. Savage, 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on wildfire dynamics in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 385-397, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2019-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2019-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-2019-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-2019-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. Matt Jolly & Mark A. Cochrane & Patrick H. Freeborn & Zachary A. Holden & Timothy J. Brown & Grant J. Williamson & David M. J. S. Bowman, 2015. "Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vafa Anvari & Channing Arndt & Faaiqa Hartley & Konstantin Makrelov & Kenneth Strezepek & Tim Thomas & Sherwin Gabriel & Bruno Merven, 2022. "AclimatechangemodellingframeworkforfinancialstresstestinginSouthernAfrica," Working Papers 11030, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Matthew F. Chersich & Caradee Y. Wright & Francois Venter & Helen Rees & Fiona Scorgie & Barend Erasmus, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandra D Syphard & Timothy Sheehan & Heather Rustigian-Romsos & Kenneth Ferschweiler, 2018. "Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    2. Carmenta, Rachel & Cammelli, Federico & Dressler, Wolfram & Verbicaro, Camila & Zaehringer, Julie G., 2021. "Between a rock and a hard place: The burdens of uncontrolled fire for smallholders across the tropics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Lucash, Melissa S. & Marshall, Adrienne M. & Weiss, Shelby A. & McNabb, John W. & Nicolsky, Dmitry J. & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Link, Timothy E. & Vogel, Jason G. & Scheller, Robert M. & Abramoff, Ro, 2023. "Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    4. Chao-Yuan Lin & Pei-Ying Shieh & Shao-Wei Wu & Po-Cheng Wang & Yung-Chau Chen, 2022. "Environmental indicators combined with risk analysis to evaluate potential wildfire incidence on the Dadu Plateau in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 287-313, August.
    5. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    6. Johnston, David W. & Önder, Yasin Kürşat & Rahman, Muhammad Habibur & Ulubaşoğlu, Mehmet A., 2021. "Evaluating wildfire exposure: Using wellbeing data to estimate and value the impacts of wildfire," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 782-798.
    7. Andrea Duane & Marc Castellnou & Lluís Brotons, 2021. "Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Rafaello Bergonse & Sandra Oliveira & Ana Gonçalves & Sílvia Nunes & Carlos Câmara & José Luis Zêzere, 2021. "A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2545-2573, April.
    9. Rossi, David & Kuusela, Olli-Pekka & Dunn, Christopher, 2022. "A microeconometric analysis of wildfire suppression decisions in the Western United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. Foster, Adrianna C. & Shuman, Jacquelyn K. & Shugart, Herman H. & Dwire, Kathleen A. & Fornwalt, Paula J. & Sibold, Jason & Negron, Jose, 2017. "Validation and application of a forest gap model to the southern Rocky Mountains," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 351(C), pages 109-128.
    11. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Miranda, Jonathan da Rocha & Juvanhol, Ronie Silva & da Silva, Rosane Gomes, 2023. "Use of maximum entropy to improve validation and prediction of active fires in a Brazilian savanna region," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    13. Melania Michetti & Mehmet Pinar, 2019. "Forest Fires Across Italian Regions and Implications for Climate Change: A Panel Data Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 207-246, January.
    14. Emily S Hope & Daniel W McKenney & John H Pedlar & Brian J Stocks & Sylvie Gauthier, 2016. "Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    15. Foster, Adrianna C. & Armstrong, Amanda H. & Shuman, Jacquelyn K. & Shugart, Herman H. & Rogers, Brendan M. & Mack, Michelle C. & Goetz, Scott J. & Ranson, K. Jon, 2019. "Importance of tree- and species-level interactions with wildfire, climate, and soils in interior Alaska: Implications for forest change under a warming climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 409(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Hamed Adab, 2017. "Landfire hazard assessment in the Caspian Hyrcanian forest ecoregion with the long-term MODIS active fire data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1807-1825, July.
    17. Pelagie Elimbi Moudio & Cristobal Pais & Zuo-Jun Max Shen, 2021. "Quantifying the impact of ecosystem services for landscape management under wildfire hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 531-560, March.
    18. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
    19. Piyush Jain & Mari R. Tye & Debasish Paimazumder & Mike Flannigan, 2020. "Downscaling fire weather extremes from historical and projected climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 189-216, November.
    20. Asensio-Sevilla, M.I. & Santos-Martín, M.T. & Álvarez-León, D. & Ferragut-Canals, L., 2020. "Global sensitivity analysis of fuel-type-dependent input variables of a simplified physical fire spread model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 33-44.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2019-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.