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How accurate are energy intensity projections?

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  • David I. Stern

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth, and historical errors in projecting energy intensity can partly be explained by errors in projecting the rate of economic growth. However, recent projections of the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to economic growth probably overstate the likely future reduction in energy intensity even if economic growth is projected accurately. This could be because energy efficiency policies are not implemented as effectively as expected or because the economy-wide rebound effect is larger than modeling assumes.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Stern, 2017. "How accurate are energy intensity projections?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 537-545, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2003-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2003-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pretis, Felix & Roser, Max, 2017. "Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 718-725.
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    11. Arthur A. van Benthem, 2015. "Energy Leapfrogging," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 93-132.
    12. Stern, David I., 2012. "Modeling international trends in energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2200-2208.
    13. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How Accurate are Projections of Energy Intensity?
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2017-04-27 02:17:00
    2. Annual Review 2017
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2017-12-28 02:26:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruns, Stephan B. & Moneta, Alessio & Stern, David I., 2021. "Estimating the economy-wide rebound effect using empirically identified structural vector autoregressions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Leonard Goke & Jens Weibezahn & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2021. "A collective blueprint, not a crystal ball: How expectations and participation shape long-term energy scenarios," Papers 2112.04821, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    3. Nicolas Schneider & Avik Sinha, 2023. "Better clean or efficient? Panel regressions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-24, August.
    4. Amendola, Marco & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2024. "Energy efficiency policies in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 116-132.
    5. Pretis, Felix & Roser, Max, 2017. "Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 718-725.
    6. Saunders, Harry D. & Roy, Joyashree & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Chakravarty, Debalina & Dasgupta, Shyamasree & De La Rue Du Can, Stephane & Druckman, Angela & Fouquet, Roger & Grubb, Michael & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Energy efficiency: what has research delivered in the last 40 years?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Cotterman, Turner, 2019. "Why Rapid and Deep Decarbonization isn’t Simple: Linking Bottom-up Socio-technical Decision-making Insights with Top-down Macroeconomic Analyses," Conference papers 333088, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Jafari, Mahboubeh & Stern, David I. & Bruns, Stephan B., 2022. "How large is the economy-wide rebound effect in middle income countries? Evidence from Iran," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Stern, David I., 2020. "How large is the economy-wide rebound effect?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Eka Sudarmaji & Sri Ambarwati & Mira Munira, 2022. "Measurement of the Rebound Effect on Urban Household Energy Consumption Savings," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 88-100, September.
    12. Syeda Tayyaba Ijaz & Sumayya Chughtai, 2022. "The Impact of Financial, Economic and Environmental Factors on Energy Efficiency, Intensity, and Dependence: The Moderating Role of Governance and Institutional Quality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 15-31, July.
    13. Semieniuk, Gregor, 2024. "Inconsistent definitions of GDP: Implications for estimates of decoupling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated assessment models; Business as usual; Projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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