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The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xuan Yang

    (National Meteorological Centre of China Meteorological Administration
    Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration)

  • Zhan Tian

    (Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service)

  • Laixiang Sun

    (University of Maryland
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of London)

  • Baode Chen

    (Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration)

  • Francesco N. Tubiello

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO))

  • Yinlong Xu

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)

Abstract

China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. Wheat is one of the two major staple cereals consumed in the country and about 60% of Chinese population eats the grain daily. To safeguard the production of this important crop, about 85% of wheat areas in the country are under irrigation or high rainfall conditions. However, wheat production in the future will be challenged by the increasing occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme weather events. In this paper, we present an analysis that combines outputs from a wide range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with observational data to produce more detailed projections of local climate suitable for assessing the impact of increasing heat stress events on wheat yield. We run the assessment at 36 representative sites in China using the crop growth model CSM-CropSim Wheat of DSSAT 4.5. The simulations based on historical data show that this model is suitable for quantifying yield damages caused by heat stress. In comparison with the observations of baseline 1996–2005, our simulations for the future indicate that by 2100 the projected increases in heat stress would lead to an ensemble-mean yield reduction of −7.1% (with a probability of 80%) and −17.5% (with a probability of 96%) for winter wheat and spring wheat, respectively, under the irrigated condition. Although such losses can be fully compensated by CO2 fertilization effect as parameterized in DSSAT 4.5, a great caution is needed in interpreting this fertilization effect because existing crop dynamic models are unable to incorporate the effect of CO2 acclimation (the growth-enhancing effect decreases over time) and other offsetting forces.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuan Yang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Baode Chen & Francesco N. Tubiello & Yinlong Xu, 2017. "The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 605-620, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1866-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1866-z
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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. R. K. Mall & Nidhi Singh & K. K. Singh & Geetika Sonkar & Akhilesh Gupta, 2018. "Evaluating the performance of RegCM4.0 climate model for climate change impact assessment on wheat and rice crop in diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 503-515, August.
    4. M. Mehedi Hasan & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Mohammad Jakaria & Mahiuddin Alamgir, 2018. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals 2 (SDG2) and 6 (SDG6)," Discussion Papers Series 599, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. Mohmmed, Alnail & Li, Jianhua & Elaru, Joshua & Elbashier, Mohammed M.A. & Keesstra, Saskia & Artemi, Cerdà & Martin, Kabenge & Reuben, Makomere & Teffera, Zeben, 2018. "Assessing drought vulnerability and adaptation among farmers in Gadaref region, Eastern Sudan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 402-413.
    6. Hui Ju & Qin Liu & Yingchun Li & Xiaoxu Long & Zhongwei Liu & Erda Lin, 2020. "Multi-Stakeholder Efforts to Adapt to Climate Change in China’s Agricultural Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Ahmad, Mirza Junaid & Iqbal, Muhammad Anjum & Choi, Kyung Sook, 2020. "Climate-driven constraints in sustaining future wheat yield and water productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Kothari, Kritika & Ale, Srinivasulu & Attia, Ahmed & Rajan, Nithya & Xue, Qingwu & Munster, Clyde L., 2019. "Potential climate change adaptation strategies for winter wheat production in the Texas High Plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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