IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v140y2017i3d10.1007_s10584-016-1860-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Sturm

    (University of Alaska-Fairbanks)

  • Michael A. Goldstein

    (Babson College)

  • Henry Huntington

    (Huntington Consulting)

  • Thomas A. Douglas

    (U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab—Alaska)

Abstract

Nature provides critical ecosystem services on which society and businesses rely, but the effort and cost of utilizing those services can change with the climate. Both climatic trend and variance affect these efforts and costs, creating a complex decision space where uncertain future predictions are the rule. Here, we show how these problems mimic option payoffs and demonstrate a modified version of the Black–Scholes option pricing formula (widely used in finance) to analyze these types of business-climate decisions. We demonstrate the method by (1) examining the viability of building ice roads in the Northwest Territories of Canada, where a strong negative warming trend is underway, and (2) applying it to the problem of the ongoing California drought, estimating expected water costs with and without storage. The method is novel and provides a simple and accessible way to make such assessments to at least a first-order approximation. While our focus here is on business situations where decisions are usually based on money, we suggest that a similar approach could be used beyond the business world in examining risk and attributing that risk to climate variance vs. trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Sturm & Michael A. Goldstein & Henry Huntington & Thomas A. Douglas, 2017. "Using an option pricing approach to evaluate strategic decisions in a rapidly changing climate: Black–Scholes and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 437-449, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1860-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1860-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1860-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1860-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    2. Tucker, Michael, 1997. "Climate change and the insurance industry: the cost of increased risk and the impetus for action," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 85-96, August.
    3. Berry Gersonius & Richard Ashley & Assela Pathirana & Chris Zevenbergen, 2013. "Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 411-423, January.
    4. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    5. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Miranda Reed-Grice & Brandon E. Ross, 2024. "Application of the Black–Scholes Financial Model to Support Adaptability as a Sustainability Strategy for Buildings: A Case Study of an Adaptable Campus Parking Garage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    3. Lee, Sangjun & Zhao, Jinhua, 2021. "Adaptation to climate change: Extreme events versus gradual changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Xueke Li & Scott R. Stephenson & Amanda H. Lynch & Michael A. Goldstein & David A. Bailey & Siri Veland, 2021. "Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Charles Sims & Sarah E. Null & Josue Medellin-Azuara & Augustina Odame, 2021. "Hurry Up Or Wait: Are Private Investments In Climate Change Adaptation Delayed?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 1-36, November.
    6. Rui Shi & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Huai Jiang, 2019. "When can decision analysis improve climate adaptation planning? Two procedures to match analysis approaches with adaptation problems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 611-630, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cuypers, I.R.P., 2009. "Essays on equity joint ventures, uncertainty and experience," Other publications TiSEM 8dc79e86-c625-467f-a450-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Twine, Edgar E. & Kiiza, Barnabas & Bashaasha, Bernard, 2015. "The Flexible Accelerator Model of Investment: An Application to Ugandan Tea- Processing Firms," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Garcia Fronti, Javier, 2015. "Modelo estocástico para la valuación de una inversión nanomédica [Nanomedical Stochastic Investment Valuation]," MPRA Paper 63948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    5. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    6. Haque, Md. Aminul & Topal, Erkan & Lilford, Eric, 2014. "A numerical study for a mining project using real options valuation under commodity price uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 115-123.
    7. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    8. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    9. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Solving the Capacity Optimization Problem under Demand Uncertainty," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(34), pages 97-116, (4).
    10. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2018. "Using real options to study the impact of capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," MPRA Paper 90441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anastasios Michailidis & Konstadinos Mattas, 2007. "Using Real Options Theory to Irrigation Dam Investment Analysis: An Application of Binomial Option Pricing Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1717-1733, October.
    12. Ahlers, Oliver & Hack, Andreas & Kellermanns, Franz W., 2014. "“Stepping into the buyers’ shoes”: Looking at the value of family firms through the eyes of private equity investors," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 384-396.
    13. Martins, José & Marques, Rui Cunha & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira, 2014. "Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-80.
    14. Duku-Kaakyire, Armstrong & Nanang, David M., 2004. "Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 539-552, October.
    15. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    16. Patricio Mansilla & José Manuel Vassallo, 2020. "Innovative Infrastructure Fund to Ensure the Financial Sustainability of PPP Projects: The Case of Chile," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-21, November.
    17. Aminrostamkolaee, Behnam & Scroggs, Jeffrey S. & Borghei, Matin Sadat & Safdari-Vaighani, Ali & Mohammadi, Teymour & Hossein Pourkazemi, Mohammad, 2017. "Valuation of a hypothetical mining project under commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties by using numerical methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 296-307.
    18. MacDougall, Shelley L. & Pike, Richard H., 2003. "Consider your options: changes to strategic value during implementation of advanced manufacturing technology," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-15, February.
    19. Polat, Levent & Battal, Unal (Ãœnal), 2021. "Airport infrastructure investments and valuing expansion decisions using the compound real option approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Cheng, Cheng & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Mingming & Chen, Qiang & Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Ren, Xiaohang, 2017. "Defer option valuation and optimal investment timing of solar photovoltaic projects under different electricity market systems and support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 594-610.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1860-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.