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Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport

Author

Listed:
  • Moges B. Wagena

    (Virginia Tech
    Beles Subbasin Organization)

  • Andrew Sommerlot

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Anteneh Z. Abiy

    (Tana Subbasin Organization)

  • Amy S. Collick

    (University of Maryland Eastern Shore)

  • Simon Langan

    (International Water Management Institute)

  • Daniel R. Fuka

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Zachary M. Easton

    (Virginia Tech)

Abstract

As much as 66% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin (BNB). This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region and could be impacted by climate change. This study coupled a watershed model analysis with bias corrected and downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate data to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources and sediment dynamics in two critical headwater basins of the BNB. Climate scenarios analyzed include RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 from six climate models, which were used to force watershed models calibrated against historic streamflow for six gauged sub-watersheds in the Tana basin and four gauged sub-watersheds in the Beles basin. We developed distributed watershed model parameter estimates from the gauged sub-watersheds, which were applied to un-gauged portions of the basins using topographically informed parameter transfer functions. We analyzed the impact of climate change for two future time periods (2041–2065 and 2075–2099) by running each of the six downscaled and bias corrected CMIP5 model predicted climate forcings through the watershed models to assess the impact of ensemble model mean and variance in climate change prediction on water availability and sediment transport. Results indicate that the Tana and Beles basins will experience increases both in mean annual flow (22-27%) and sediment concentrations (16-19%). Interestingly, and of significance for water availability and hydropower development, the monsoon in the Tana and Beles basins will lengthen by approximately four (Tana) to six (Beles) weeks. These results highlight both the considerable variance in climate change impacts as well as the potential for beneficial outcomes in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Moges B. Wagena & Andrew Sommerlot & Anteneh Z. Abiy & Amy S. Collick & Simon Langan & Daniel R. Fuka & Zachary M. Easton, 2016. "Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 229-243, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1785-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1785-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele & Smakhtin, Vladimir & Molden, David & Peden D., 2012. "The Nile River Basin: water, agriculture, governance and livelihoods," IWMI Books, Reports H045307, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele & Smakhtin, Vladimir & Molden, David & Peden, D., 2012. "The Nile River Basin: water, agriculture, governance and livelihoods," IWMI Books, International Water Management Institute, number 210740.
    3. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele, 2008. "A review of hydrology, sediment and water resource use in the Blue Nile Basin," IWMI Working Papers H041833, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele & Smakhtin, Vladimir & Molden, David & Peden D., 2012. "The Nile River Basin: water, agriculture, governance and livelihoods," IWMI Books, Reports H045306, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Ibrahim, Y. A. & Elnil, M. S. R. & Ahmed, A. A., 2009. "Improving water management practices in the Rahad Scheme," Conference Papers h042507, International Water Management Institute.
    6. McCartney, Matthew & Alemayehu, T. & Easton, Z. M. & Awulachew, Seleshi Bekele, 2012. "Simulating current and future water resources development in the Blue Nile River Basin," IWMI Books, Reports H045321, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Haileslassie, Amare & Peden, Don & Gebreselassie, Solomon & Amede, Tilahun & Descheemaeker, Katrien, 2009. "Livestock water productivity in mixed crop-livestock farming systems of the Blue Nile basin: Assessing variability and prospects for improvement," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 33-40, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anik Juli Dwi Astuti & Sofie Annys & Mekete Dessie & Jan Nyssen & Stefaan Dondeyne, 2022. "To What Extent Is Hydrologic Connectivity Taken into Account in Catchment Studies in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia? A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2019. "Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 130, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Oudah Yobom, 2020. "Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 365-384, April.
    4. Ibrahim Farah & Valentine Opanga, 2016. "Hydro-Politics of the Nile: The Role of South Sudan," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 59(3), pages 308-313, December.
    5. Saleh A Wasimi & Nahlah Abbas & Nadhir Al Ansari, 2018. "Climate Change Adaptation Considerations for Agriculture for North-East Iraq," Current Investigations in Agriculture and Current Research, Lupine Publishers, LLC, vol. 2(4), pages 236-242, May.
    6. Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2020. "Climate change impacts on crop yields," IFPRI book chapters, in: Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, chapter 4, pages 97-113, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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