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Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]

In: Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

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  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • Robertson, Richard D.

Abstract

Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,†presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2020. "Climate change impacts on crop yields [In Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios]," IFPRI book chapters, in: Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, chapter 4, pages 97-113, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifpric:9780896296916_04
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/143246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    2. Schmidt, Emily & Thomas, Timothy S., 2018. "Cropland expansion in Ethiopia: Economic and climatic considerations for highland agriculture," ESSP working papers 127, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Kim, Ungtae & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports 53025, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Kim, U. & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports H041713, International Water Management Institute.
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