IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/fpr/ifpric/9780896296916_04.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Climate change impacts on crop yields

In: Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Dorosh, Paul A.
  • Robertson, Richard D.

Abstract

Chapter 4, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields,†presents results of model simulations of crop yields in Ethiopia through 2085. The analysis draws on climate outcomes from 32 global climate models and an agronomic crop model to estimate effects of expected higher temperatures and, for most of Ethiopia, increased rainfall. The simulation results suggest that climate change will likely have only relatively small effects on average yields of maize, wheat, and sorghum in Ethiopia up to 2055, as agronomic conditions for cultivation of these crops may actually improve in large parts of the country. Nonetheless, crop yields will need to increase over time to enable cereal production to keep pace with expected demand growth due to increases in population and per capita incomes. Moreover, even if future changes in climate have only moderate impacts on average crop yields in Ethiopia, weather outcomes and consequent crop yields are likely to become more variable in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2020. "Climate change impacts on crop yields," IFPRI book chapters, in: Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios, chapter 4, pages 97-113, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifpric:9780896296916_04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/133980/filename/134193.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    2. Schmidt, Emily & Thomas, Timothy S., 2018. "Cropland expansion in Ethiopia: Economic and climatic considerations for highland agriculture," ESSP working papers 127, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Kim, Ungtae & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports 53025, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Emily Schmidt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek, 2017. "Determinants and impact of sustainable land management (SLM) investments: A systems evaluation in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(5), pages 613-627, September.
    5. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
    6. Kim, U. & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports H041713, International Water Management Institute.
    7. Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmoré, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold, 2013. "West african agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis:," Issue briefs 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Waithaka, Michael & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Kyotalimye, Miriam (ed.), 2013. "East African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-205-5.
    9. Moges B. Wagena & Andrew Sommerlot & Anteneh Z. Abiy & Amy S. Collick & Simon Langan & Daniel R. Fuka & Zachary M. Easton, 2016. "Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 229-243, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas, Timothy S. & Dorosh, Paul A. & Robertson, Richard D., 2019. "Climate change impacts on crop yields in Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 130, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "General equilibrium effects of public adaptation in agriculture in LDCs: Evidence from Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 11/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    3. Yalew, Amsalu W. & Hirte, Georg & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2017. "Economic effects of climate change in developing countries: Economy-wide and regional analysis for Ethiopia," CEPIE Working Papers 10/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    4. Block, Paul, 2011. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopiaâ..s Energy Needs under a Changing Climate," WIDER Working Paper Series 090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Paul Block & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 476-488, August.
    6. Katcho Karume & Jean M. Mondo & Géant B. Chuma & Angele Ibanda & Espoir M. Bagula & Alex Lina Aleke & Serge Ndjadi & Bintu Ndusha & Pascaline Azine Ciza & Nadege Cirezi Cizungu & Daniel Muhindo & Anth, 2022. "Current Practices and Prospects of Climate-Smart Agriculture in Democratic Republic of Congo: A Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    7. D. Lumbroso & G. Woolhouse & L. Jones, 2015. "A review of the consideration of climate change in the planning of hydropower schemes in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 621-633, December.
    8. Paul Block & Kenneth Strzepek, 2011. "Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopia's Energy Needs Under a Changing Climate," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-090, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Faye, Amy & Msangi, Siwa, 2018. "Rainfall variability and groundwater availability for irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from the Niayes region of Senegal," MPRA Paper 92388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lekarkar, Katoria & Nkwasa, Albert & Villani, Lorenzo & van Griensven, Ann, 2024. "Localizing agricultural impacts of 21st century climate pathways in data scarce catchments: A case study of the Nyando catchment, Kenya," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. McCartney, Matthew, 2009. "Improved planning of large dam operation: using decision support systems to optimize livelihood benefits, safeguard health and protect the environment. CPWF project report, project number 36," IWMI Research Reports H042678, International Water Management Institute.
    12. Schürmann, Alina & Kleemann, Janina & Fürst, Christine & Teucher, Mike, 2020. "Assessing the relationship between land tenure issues and land cover changes around the Arabuko Sokoke Forest in Kenya," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Tomaso Ceccarelli & Manuel Winograd & Pedro Andres Garzon Delvaux & Steven Hoek & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2019. "Human appropriation of net primary production of Sahel ecosystems under a changing climate to 2050: Food security and resource-use balance in the Sahel," JRC Research Reports JRC108643, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Chenlu Huang & Qinke Yang & Weidong Huang & Junlong Zhang & Yuru Li & Yucen Yang, 2018. "Hydrological Response to Precipitation and Human Activities—A Case Study in the Zuli River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    15. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Georg Hirte & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Stefan Tscharaktschiew, 2019. "The Synergies and Trade-Offs of Planned Adaptation in Agriculture: a General Equilibrium Analysis for Ethiopia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 213-233, October.
    17. Getachew, Fikadu & Bayabil, Haimanote K. & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Teshome, Fitsum T. & Zewdu, Eshetu, 2021. "Irrigation and shifting planting date as climate change adaptation strategies for sorghum," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    18. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Cenacchi, Nicola & Creamer, Bernardo & Gueneau, Arthur & Hareau, Guy & Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Mottaleb, Khondoker & Nedumaran, Swamikannu &, 2015. "Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Ex ante analysis of promising and alternative crop technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT:," IFPRI discussion papers 1469, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Sanctus Niragira & Jean Ndimubandi & Jos Orshoven & Marijke D’Haese & Jeroen Buysse & Serge Ngendakumana & Zacharie Miburo & Pamela Sinzinkayo, 2022. "Modelling crop portfolios that minimize human macronutrient deficiency on subsistence farms in Burundi," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(1), pages 23-37, February.
    20. Celray James Chawanda & Jeffrey Arnold & Wim Thiery & Ann Griensven, 2020. "Mass balance calibration and reservoir representations for large-scale hydrological impact studies using SWAT+," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1307-1327, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifpric:9780896296916_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.