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Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios

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  • Calum Brown
  • Evan Brown
  • Dave Murray-Rust
  • George Cojocaru
  • Cristina Savin
  • Mark Rounsevell

Abstract

Many models have been developed to explore the likely consequences of climate change. These models tend to focus on single physical or socio-economic sectors and their processes, and neglect the many feedbacks that occur between the different components of the real world. To overcome this problem, models are increasingly being combined in integrated assessment platforms (IAPs), of which the CLIMSAVE IAP is an example, modelling cross-sectoral impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change in Europe by combining 10 different meta-models that focus on specific sectors. Where models are combined in this way, however, attention must be given to the potential errors and uncertainties that integration might introduce. We present a quantitative uncertainty analysis of selected outputs of the CLIMSAVE IAP based on creating and sampling from probability density functions (PDFs) of each of the IAP’s input variables to take account of model and scenario uncertainty. We find limited uncertainties in aggregate outputs of the IAP, which allow specific impacts to be predicted with definable levels of confidence. However, we also find substantial overlap between different socio-economic scenarios at the European scale, suggesting that changes to socio-economic conditions cannot reliably overcome climate-related uncertainty. Nevertheless, there is evidence that particular adaptation actions may significantly alter the impacts of climate change, especially at local or national scales. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Calum Brown & Evan Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & George Cojocaru & Cristina Savin & Mark Rounsevell, 2015. "Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 293-306, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:3:p:293-306
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1133-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hallegatte, Stephane & Hourcade, Jean-Charles & Dumas, Patrice, 2007. "Why economic dynamics matter in assessing climate change damages: Illustration on extreme events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 330-340, April.
    2. Sobol’, I.M. & Tarantola, S. & Gatelli, D. & Kucherenko, S.S. & Mauntz, W., 2007. "Estimating the approximation error when fixing unessential factors in global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 957-960.
    3. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
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    1. Timár, Barnabás, 2023. "A klímavédelmi események hatása a köztudatra és a tőkepiacra. Empirikus vizsgálat Google-trends- és ETF-adatokon [The impact of climate events on public perception and capital markets. An empirical," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 713-745.
    2. Jew Das & Alin Treesa & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on a River Basin: Analysis of Uncertainty Using REA & Possibilistic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4833-4852, December.
    3. Ye, Bin & Jiang, Jingjing & Liu, Junguo & Zheng, Yi & Zhou, Nan, 2021. "Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Xira Ruiz-Campillo & Vanesa Castán Broto & Linda Westman, 2021. "Motivations and Intended Outcomes in Local Governments' Declarations of Climate Emergency," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(2), pages 17-28.
    5. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.

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