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The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets

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  • Jasper Vliet
  • Andries Hof
  • Angelica Mendoza Beltran
  • Maarten Berg
  • Sebastiaan Deetman
  • Michel Elzen
  • Paul Lucas
  • Detlef Vuuren

Abstract

While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these technologies. This study explores the impacts of technology limitations on greenhouse gas emission reductions using the integrated model IMAGE. It shows that the required short-term emission reductions to achieve long-term radiative forcing targets strongly depend on assumptions on the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Limited availability of mitigation technologies which are relatively important in the long run implies that lower short-term emission levels are required. For instance, limited bio-energy availability reduces the optimal 2020 emission level by more than 4 GtCO 2 eq in order to compensate the reduced availability of negative emissions from bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the long run. On the other hand, reduced mitigation potential of options that are used in 2020 can also lead to a higher optimal level for 2020 emissions. The results also show the critical role of BECCS for achieving low radiative forcing targets in IMAGE. Without these technologies achieving these targets become much more expensive or even infeasible. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jasper Vliet & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Maarten Berg & Sebastiaan Deetman & Michel Elzen & Paul Lucas & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 559-569, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:559-569
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0961-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pugh, Graham & Clarke, Leon & Marlay, Robert & Kyle, Page & Wise, Marshall & McJeon, Haewon & Chan, Gabriel, 2011. "Energy R&D portfolio analysis based on climate change mitigation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 634-643, July.
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    3. Detlef Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2011. "The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 793-801, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sergey Paltsev, 2016. "Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis," EcoMod2016 9371, EcoMod.
    3. Haro, Pedro & Aracil, Cristina & Vidal-Barrero, Fernando & Ollero, Pedro, 2015. "Rewarding of extra-avoided GHG emissions in thermochemical biorefineries incorporating Bio-CCS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 255-266.
    4. Ajay Gambhir & Shivika Mittal & Robin D. Lamboll & Neil Grant & Dan Bernie & Laila Gohar & Adam Hawkes & Alexandre Köberle & Joeri Rogelj & Jason A. Lowe, 2023. "Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Matteo Muratori & Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Marshall Wise & Vassilis Daioglou & Yiyun Cui & Etsushi Kato & Matthew Gidden & Jessica Strefler & Shinichiro Fujimori & Ronald D. Sands & Detlef P. Vuu, 2020. "EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1621-1637, December.
    6. Sergey Paltsev, 2017. "Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), July.
    7. Hurlbert, Margot & Osazuwa-Peters, Mac, 2023. "Carbon capture and storage in Saskatchewan: An analysis of communicative practices in a contested technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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