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Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 st century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification

Author

Listed:
  • N. Elguindi
  • A. Grundstein
  • S. Bernardes
  • U. Turuncoglu
  • J. Feddema

Abstract

A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21 s t century following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Köppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values > 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • N. Elguindi & A. Grundstein & S. Bernardes & U. Turuncoglu & J. Feddema, 2014. "Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21 st century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 523-538, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:4:p:523-538
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1020-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephanie McAfee, 2013. "Methodological differences in projected potential evapotranspiration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 915-930, October.
    2. Irina Mahlstein & John S. Daniel & Susan Solomon, 2013. "Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 739-743, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andung Bayu Sekaranom & Emilya Nurjani & Fitria Nucifera, 2021. "Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation in Kebumen, Central Java, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Hajnalka Breuer & Ferenc Ács & Nóra Skarbit, 2018. "Observed and projected climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries according to Feddema," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 377-390, October.
    3. Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.
    4. Mouhamadou Sylla & Nellie Elguindi & Filippo Giorgi & Dominik Wisser, 2016. "Projected robust shift of climate zones over West Africa in response to anthropogenic climate change for the late 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 241-253, January.

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