IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v79y2017icp36-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The prospect of global environmental relativities after an Anthropocene tipping point

Author

Listed:
  • Grainger, Alan

Abstract

While there is vigorous debate on whether the Anthropocene epoch began in 1800, as originally proposed, less attention has been paid to the transition from Stage 2 of the existing three stage chronology, in which carbon dioxide emissions accelerated after 1945, to Stage 3, in which after 2015 acceleration is expected to reach criticality, and the Earth System is predicted to pass through an irreversible “tipping point” to a warmer state, unless this is averted by a new planetary stewardship. This paper critically evaluates this chronology and finds (a) that there is insufficient evidence for an imminent irreversible tipping point, and (b) that the international community established a new planetary stewardship in 1992 when it agreed on new conventions on climate change and biodiversity in response to three decades of warnings about global environmental problems. The paper proposes an alternative framework for conceptualizing the transition between Stages 2 and 3 of the Anthropocene. This generates the hypothesis that after the actual carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere has exceeded a critical threshold level, some biophysical processes will change at rates proportional to the difference between the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere and the threshold level, and to the rate of climate change. Evidence is presented which suggests that this new reversible tipping point could have been passed before 1980, when enhanced forest growth was first observed in mature forests in Amazonia. Modelling simulations suggest that this temporal relativity effect could soon be joined by a spatio-temporal relativity effect, as species become committed to extinction and/or form new species assemblages in the 21st Century when climate zones shift. Since this new tipping point is reversible there is still time for planetary stewardship to become more effective and minimize the harmful effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Grainger, Alan, 2017. "The prospect of global environmental relativities after an Anthropocene tipping point," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 36-49.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:36-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2017.01.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934117300254
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.01.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gisli Palsson & Bronislaw Szerszynski & Sverker Sörlin & John Marks & Bernard Avril & Carole Crumley & Heide Hackmann & Poul Holm & John Ingram & Alan Kirman & Mercedes Pardo Buendia & Rifka Weehuizen, 2013. "Reconceptualizing the 'Anthropos' in the Anthropocene: Integrating the social sciences and humanities in global environmental change research," Post-Print hal-01500892, HAL.
    2. Daly, Herman E., 1990. "Toward some operational principles of sustainable development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6, April.
    3. Irina Mahlstein & John S. Daniel & Susan Solomon, 2013. "Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 739-743, August.
    4. Simon L. Lewis & Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez & Bonaventure Sonké & Kofi Affum-Baffoe & Timothy R. Baker & Lucas O. Ojo & Oliver L. Phillips & Jan M. Reitsma & Lee White & James A. Comiskey & Marie-Noël Dj, 2009. "Increasing carbon storage in intact African tropical forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 457(7232), pages 1003-1006, February.
    5. de Groot, Rudolf S. & Wilson, Matthew A. & Boumans, Roelof M. J., 2002. "A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 393-408, June.
    6. Anonymous, 1981. "Introduction [Disparites Economiques Regionales]," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 7(4), pages 498-499, Autumn.
    7. Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron & Rhys E. Green & Michel Bakkenes & Linda J. Beaumont & Yvonne C. Collingham & Barend F. N. Erasmus & Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira & Alan Grainger & Lee Hannah & Lesle, 2004. "Extinction risk from climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 427(6970), pages 145-148, January.
    8. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S. & Barbier, Edward B., 1996. "Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1151-1160, July.
    9. Simon L. Lewis & Mark A. Maslin, 2015. "Defining the Anthropocene," Nature, Nature, vol. 519(7542), pages 171-180, March.
    10. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
    11. John Harte & Annette Ostling & Jessica L. Green & Ann Kinzig, 2004. "Climate change and extinction risk," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6995), pages 34-34, July.
    12. Johan Rockström & Will Steffen & Kevin Noone & Åsa Persson & F. Stuart Chapin & Eric F. Lambin & Timothy M. Lenton & Marten Scheffer & Carl Folke & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber & Björn Nykvist & Cynthia , 2009. "A safe operating space for humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 472-475, September.
    13. Phillips, Jonathan D., 2011. "Predicting modes of spatial change from state-and-transition models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 475-484.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alan Grainger, 2022. "Are Global Environmental Uncertainties Inevitable? Measuring Desertification for the SDGs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-33, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Larue, Louis, 2020. "The Ecology of Money: A Critical Assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Filipa Correia & Philipp Erfruth & Julie Bryhn, 2018. "The 2030 Agenda: The roadmap to GlobALLizaton," Working Papers 156, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    3. Václavík, Tomáš & Meentemeyer, Ross K., 2009. "Invasive species distribution modeling (iSDM): Are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(23), pages 3248-3258.
    4. Costantini, Valeria & Monni, Salvatore, 2008. "Environment, human development and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 867-880, February.
    5. Ronja Teschner & Jessica Ruppen & Basil Bornemann & Rony Emmenegger & Lucía Aguirre Sánchez, 2021. "Mapping Sustainable Diets: A Comparison of Sustainability References in Dietary Guidelines of Swiss Food Governance Actors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    7. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    8. Ethan Gordon & Federico Davila & Chris Riedy, 2022. "Transforming landscapes and mindscapes through regenerative agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(2), pages 809-826, June.
    9. Tasmin L. Rymer & Neville Pillay & Carsten Schradin, 2013. "Extinction or Survival? Behavioral Flexibility in Response to Environmental Change in the African Striped Mouse Rhabdomys," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    10. Jean-François Ruault & Alice Dupré La Tour & André Evette & Sandrine Allain & Jean-Marc Callois, 2022. "A biodiversity-employment framework to protect biodiversity," Post-Print hal-03365820, HAL.
    11. Valeria Costantini & Chiara Martini, 2010. "A Modified Environmental Kuznets Curve for sustainable development assessment using panel data," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 84-122.
    12. Hoff, Jens V. & Rasmussen, Martin M.B. & Sørensen, Peter Birch, 2021. "Barriers and opportunities in developing and implementing a Green GDP," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    13. Alexander S Anderson & Collin J Storlie & Luke P Shoo & Richard G Pearson & Stephen E Williams, 2013. "Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-12, July.
    14. Manel Kamoun & Ines Abdelkafi & Abdelfetah Ghorbel, 2019. "The Impact of Renewable Energy on Sustainable Growth: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 221-237, March.
    15. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    16. Stern, David I., 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer," Working Papers 249424, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    17. Perez, Carlos & Roncoli, Carla & Neely, Constance & Steiner, Jean L., 2007. "Can carbon sequestration markets benefit low-income producers in semi-arid Africa? Potentials and challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 2-12, April.
    18. V.Martinet & L. Doyen, 2003. "Sustainable management of an exhaustible resource:a viable control model," THEMA Working Papers 2003-36, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    19. S. Nazrul Islam & Kenneth Iversen, 2018. "From “Structural Change” to “Transformative Change”: Rationale and Implications," Working Papers 155, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:36-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.