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Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Uma S. Bhatt

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Rick T. Lader

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • John E. Walsh

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Peter A. Bieniek

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Richard Thoman

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Matthew Berman

    (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA)

  • Cecilia Borries-Strigle

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Kristi Bulock

    (US Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Region, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA)

  • Jonathan Chriest

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Micah Hahn

    (Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA)

  • Amy S. Hendricks

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Randi Jandt

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Joseph Little

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    The W. A. Franke College of Business, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA)

  • Daniel McEvoy

    (Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA)

  • Chris Moore

    (Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA)

  • T. Scott Rupp

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Jennifer Schmidt

    (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA)

  • Eric Stevens

    (Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA)

  • Heidi Strader

    (Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA)

  • Christine Waigl

    (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • James White

    (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
    International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Alison York

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

  • Robert Ziel

    (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA)

Abstract

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Uma S. Bhatt & Rick T. Lader & John E. Walsh & Peter A. Bieniek & Richard Thoman & Matthew Berman & Cecilia Borries-Strigle & Kristi Bulock & Jonathan Chriest & Micah Hahn & Amy S. Hendricks & Randi J, 2021. "Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:82-:d:481919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Stephanie McAfee, 2013. "Methodological differences in projected potential evapotranspiration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 915-930, October.
    3. Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young & Francis W. Zwiers & Nathan P. Gillett & Alex J. Cannon, 2017. "Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 365-379, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Allen Molina & Joseph Little & Stacy Drury & Randi Jandt, 2021. "Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Risk Mitigation in the Alaskan Wildland Urban Interface," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-11, October.

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