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Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries

Author

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  • Patrick Lehodey
  • Inna Senina
  • Beatriz Calmettes
  • John Hampton
  • Simon Nicol

Abstract

IPCC-type climate models have produced simulations of the oceanic environment that can be used to drive models of upper trophic levels to explore the impact of climate change on marine resources. We use the Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics Model (SEAPODYM) to investigate the potential impact of Climate change under IPCC A2 scenario on Pacific skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis). IPCC-type models are still coarse in resolution and can produce significant anomalies, e.g., in water temperature. These limitations have direct and strong effects when modeling the dynamics of marine species. Therefore, parameter estimation experiments based on assimilation of historical fishing data are necessary to calibrate the model to these conditions before exploring the future scenarios. A new simulation based on corrected temperature fields of the A2 simulation from one climate model (IPSL-CM4) is presented. The corrected fields led to a new parameterization close to the one achieved with more realistic environment from an ocean reanalysis and satellite-derived primary production. Projected changes in skipjack population under simple fishing effort scenarios are presented. The skipjack catch and biomass is predicted to slightly increase in the Western Central Pacific Ocean until 2050 then the biomass stabilizes and starts to decrease after 2060 while the catch reaches a plateau. Both feeding and spawning habitat become progressively more favourable in the eastern Pacific Ocean and also extend to higher latitudes, while the western equatorial warm pool is predicted to become less favorable for skipjack spawning. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Lehodey & Inna Senina & Beatriz Calmettes & John Hampton & Simon Nicol, 2013. "Modelling the impact of climate change on Pacific skipjack tuna population and fisheries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 95-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:119:y:2013:i:1:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0595-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Weifeng Zhou & Huijuan Hu & Wei Fan & Shaofei Jin, 2022. "Impact of Abnormal Climatic Events on the CPUE of Yellowfin Tuna Fishing in the Central and Western Pacific," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Johann D. Bell & Inna Senina & Timothy Adams & Olivier Aumont & Beatriz Calmettes & Sangaalofa Clark & Morgane Dessert & Marion Gehlen & Thomas Gorgues & John Hampton & Quentin Hanich & Harriet Harden, 2021. "Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 900-910, October.
    3. Bell, Johann D. & Albert, Joelle & Andréfouët, Serge & Andrew, Neil L. & Blanc, Michel & Bright, Philip & Brogan, Deidre & Campbell, Brooke & Govan, Hugh & Hampton, John & Hanich, Quentin & Harley, Sh, 2015. "Optimising the use of nearshore fish aggregating devices for food security in the Pacific Islands," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 98-105.
    4. Brian Pentz & Nicole Klenk, 2020. "Understanding the limitations of current RFMO climate change adaptation strategies: the case of the IATTC and the Eastern Pacific Ocean," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 21-39, March.
    5. Jim Salinger & Alistair Hobday, 2013. "Safeguarding the future of oceanic fisheries under climate change depends on timely preparation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 3-8, July.
    6. Hanny John Mediodia & Viktoria Kahui & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Sea Surface Temperature and Tuna Catch in the Eastern Pacific Ocean under Climate Change," Marine Resource Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 329-351.
    7. Evans, K. & Young, J.W. & Nicol, S. & Kolody, D. & Allain, V. & Bell, J. & Brown, J.N. & Ganachaud, A. & Hobday, A.J. & Hunt, B. & Innes, J. & Gupta, A. Sen & van Sebille, E. & Kloser, R. & Patterson,, 2015. "Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 94-104.
    8. M. Salinger & J. Bell & K. Evans & A. Hobday & V. Allain & K. Brander & P. Dexter & D. Harrison & A. Hollowed & B. Lee & R. Stefanski, 2013. "Climate and oceanic fisheries: recent observations and projections and future needs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 213-221, July.
    9. M. Salinger, 2013. "A brief introduction to the issue of climate and marine fisheries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 23-35, July.
    10. Johanson, Arne N. & Oschlies, Andreas & Hasselbring, Wilhelm & Worm, Boris, 2017. "SPRAT: A spatially-explicit marine ecosystem model based on population balance equations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 349(C), pages 11-25.

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