IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v118y2013i3p537-550.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The influence of national temperature fluctuations on opinions about climate change in the U.S. since 1990

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Donner
  • Jeremy McDaniels

Abstract

Public opinion in the United States about human-caused climate change has varied over the past 20 years, despite an increasing consensus about the issue in the expert community. Attitudes about climate change have been attributed to a number of factors including personal values, political ideology, the media environment and personal experience. Recent studies have found evidence that the temperature can influence one’s opinion about climate change and willingness to change behaviour and/or support climate policy. Although there is some evidence that individual cool or warm years have influenced large-scale opinion about climate change, the extent to which temperature can explain the past variability in public opinion and public discourse about climate change at the national level is not known. Here we isolate the relationship between opinion about climate change and temperature at the national scale, using data from opinion polls, a discourse analysis of opinion articles from five major daily newspapers, and a national air temperature database. The fraction of respondents to national polls who express “belief in” or “worry about” climate change is found to be significantly correlated to U.S. mean temperature anomalies over the previous 3–12 months. In addition, the fraction of editorial and opinion articles which “agree” with the expert consensus on climate change is also found to be significantly correlated to U.S. mean temperature anomalies at seasonal and annual scales. These results suggest that a fraction of the past variance in American views about climate change could potentially be explained by climate variability. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Donner & Jeremy McDaniels, 2013. "The influence of national temperature fluctuations on opinions about climate change in the U.S. since 1990," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 537-550, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:537-550
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0690-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0690-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-012-0690-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Brulle & Jason Carmichael & J. Jenkins, 2012. "Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 169-188, September.
    2. Dan M. Kahan & Hank Jenkins-Smith & Donald Braman, 2011. "Cultural cognition of scientific consensus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 147-174, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nowakowski, Adam & Oswald. Andrew J, 2020. "Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1303, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Jeremiah Bohr, 2017. "Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 271-285, May.
    3. Trisha R. Shrum, 2021. "The salience of future impacts and the willingness to pay for climate change mitigation: an experiment in intergenerational framing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Andrea Taylor & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Suraje Dessai, 2014. "Climate Change Beliefs and Perceptions of Weather‐Related Changes in the United Kingdom," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(11), pages 1995-2004, November.
    5. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2024. "On climate fat tails and politics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. Aaron C. Sparks & Heather Hodges & Sarah Oliver & Eric R. A. N. Smith, 2020. "Confidence in Local, National, and International Scientists on Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Gabrielle Wong-Parodi & M. Granger Morgan, 2014. "Public perceptions of local flood risk and the role of climate change," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 591-599, December.
    8. Durdana Ovais & Richi Simon & Nilofar Kadeer, 2024. "Mapping the climate change attitude: careless or care less?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21053-21072, August.
    9. Nowakowski, Adam & Oswald, Andrew J, 2020. "Do Europeans Care about Climate Change? An Illustration of the Importance of Data on Human Feelings," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 510, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    10. Jessie W. Y. Ko & Shengquan Ni & Alexander Taylor & Xiusi Chen & Yicong Huang & Avinash Kumar & Sadeem Alsudais & Zuozhi Wang & Xiaozhen Liu & Wei Wang & Chen Li & Suellen Hopfer, 2024. "How the experience of California wildfires shape Twitter climate change framings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Kristin B. Dobbin & Amanda L. Fencl & Gregory Pierce & Melissa Beresford & Silvia Gonzalez & Wendy Jepson, 2023. "Understanding perceived climate risks to household water supply and their implications for adaptation: evidence from California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Andrew Dugan, 2022. "On the differential correlates of climate change concerns and severe weather concerns: evidence from the World Risk Poll," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 1-24, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Wilke & Lois Morton, 2015. "Climatologists’ patterns of conveying climate science to the agricultural community," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 32(1), pages 99-110, March.
    2. Kelly S. Fielding & Matthew J. Hornsey & Ha Anh Thai & Li Li Toh, 2020. "Using ingroup messengers and ingroup values to promote climate change policy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 181-199, January.
    3. Baiardi, Donatella & Morana, Claudio, 2021. "Climate change awareness: Empirical evidence for the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 2016. "Public Awareness of the Scientific Consensus on Climate," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(4), pages 21582440166, November.
    5. Roberta Weiner & Sarah P. Church & Junyu Lu & Laura A. Esman & Jackie M. Getson & Michelle Fleckenstein & Brennan Radulski & Pranay Ranjan & Emily Usher & Linda S. Prokopy & Linda Pfeiffer, 2021. "Climate change coverage in the United States media during the 2017 hurricane season: implications for climate change communication," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Toby Bolsen & James N. Druckman & Fay Lomax Cook, 2015. "Citizens’, Scientists’, and Policy Advisors’ Beliefs about Global Warming," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 658(1), pages 271-295, March.
    7. Wanyun Shao & Kirby Goidel, 2016. "Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2136-2157, November.
    8. Melissa K. Merry & Rodger A. Payne, 2024. "Climate fatalism, partisan cues, and support for the Inflation Reduction Act," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 379-402, June.
    9. Jing Shi & Vivianne H. M. Visschers & Michael Siegrist, 2015. "Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(12), pages 2183-2201, December.
    10. Lawrence C. Hamilton, 2018. "Self-assessed understanding of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 349-362, November.
    11. Cherry, Todd L. & Kallbekken, Steffen & Kroll, Stephan, 2017. "Accepting market failure: Cultural worldviews and the opposition to corrective environmental policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 193-204.
    12. Connie Roser-Renouf & Edward W Maibach & Jennifer Li, 2016. "Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Asheley R. Landrum & Rosalynn Vasquez, 2020. "Polarized U.S. publics, Pope Francis, and climate change: Reviewing the studies and data collected around the 2015 Papal Encyclical," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(6), November.
    14. Shelley Boulianne & Mireille Lalancette & David Ilkiw, 2020. "“School Strike 4 Climate”: Social Media and the International Youth Protest on Climate Change," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(2), pages 208-218.
    15. Henrik Serup Christensen & Lauri Rapeli, 2021. "Immediate rewards or delayed gratification? A conjoint survey experiment of the public’s policy preferences," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(1), pages 63-94, March.
    16. Lu, Xi & Mo, Hongming & Deng, Yong, 2015. "An evidential opinion dynamics model based on heterogeneous social influential power," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 98-107.
    17. Jeremiah Bohr, 2017. "Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 271-285, May.
    18. Sedona Chinn & P. Sol Hart, 2021. "Effects of consensus messages and political ideology on climate change attitudes: inconsistent findings and the effect of a pretest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Prieur, Fabien & Zou, Benteng, 2018. "Climate politics: How public persuasion affects the trade-off between environmental and economic performance," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 63-72.
    20. Michael D. Jones, 2014. "Cultural Characters and Climate Change: How Heroes Shape Our Perception of Climate Science," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(1), pages 1-39, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:537-550. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.