IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v6y2017i2p36-d99952.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Future Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on the Land Surface Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Eastern Coastal City of Dammam

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5053, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia)

  • Adel S. Aldosary

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5053, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia)

  • Md. Golam Mortoja

    (ICT-GIS Division, Institute of Water Modelling, House #496, Road # 32, New DOHS, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1206, Bangladesh)

Abstract

Over the past several decades, Saudi cities have experienced rapid urban developments and land use and land cover (LULC) changes. These developments will have numerous short- and long-term consequences including increasing the land surface temperature (LST) of these cities. This study investigated the effects of LULC changes on the LST for the eastern coastal city of Dammam. Using Landsat imagery, the study first detected the LULC using the maximum likelihood classification method and derived the LSTs for the years 1990, 2002, and 2014. Using the classified results, it then modeled the future LULC for 2026 using the Cellular Automata Markov (CAM) model. Finally, using three thematic indices and linear regression analysis, it then modeled the LST for 2026 as well. The built-up area in Dammam increased by 28.9% between 1990 and 2014. During this period, the average LSTs for the LULC classes increased as well, with bare soil and built-up area having the highest LST. By 2026, the urban area is expected to encompass 55% of the city and 98% of the land cover is envisioned to have average LSTs over 41 °C. Such high temperatures will make it difficult for the residents to live in the area.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman & Adel S. Aldosary & Md. Golam Mortoja, 2017. "Modeling Future Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on the Land Surface Temperatures in the Saudi Arabian Eastern Coastal City of Dammam," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:36-:d:99952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/2/36/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/2/36/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radhi, Hassan & Sharples, Stephen, 2013. "Quantifying the domestic electricity consumption for air-conditioning due to urban heat islands in hot arid regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 371-380.
    2. Jeremy S. Pal & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2016. "Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 197-200, February.
    3. Huiran Han & Chengfeng Yang & Jinping Song, 2015. "Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taher Safarrad & Mostafa Ghadami & Andreas Dittmann & Mousa Pazhuhan (Panahandeh Khah), 2021. "Tourism Effect on the Spatiotemporal Pattern of Land Surface Temperature (LST): Babolsar and Fereydonkenar Cities (Cases Study in Iran)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Zakaria A. Mani & Krzysztof Goniewicz, 2023. "Adapting Disaster Preparedness Strategies to Changing Climate Patterns in Saudi Arabia: A Rapid Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    4. Mortoja, Md. Golam & Yigitcanlar, Tan & Mayere, Severine, 2020. "What is the most suitable methodological approach to demarcate peri-urban areas? A systematic review of the literature," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Abdullah F. Alqurashi, 2021. "Quantification of Urban Patterns and Processes through Space and Time Using Remote Sensing Data: A Comparative Study between Three Saudi Arabian Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-22, November.
    6. Yuanzheng Li & Zezhi Zhao & Yashu Xin & Ao Xu & Shuyan Xie & Yi Yan & Lan Wang, 2022. "How Are Land-Use/Land-Cover Indices and Daytime and Nighttime Land Surface Temperatures Related in Eleven Urban Centres in Different Global Climatic Zones?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Abdulaziz I. Almulhim & Simon Elias Bibri & Ayyoob Sharifi & Shakil Ahmad & Khalid Mohammed Almatar, 2022. "Emerging Trends and Knowledge Structures of Urbanization and Environmental Sustainability: A Regional Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Iman Rousta & Md Omar Sarif & Rajan Dev Gupta & Haraldur Olafsson & Manjula Ranagalage & Yuji Murayama & Hao Zhang & Terence Darlington Mushore, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover and Its Effects on Surface Urban Heat Island Using Landsat Data: A Case Study of Metropolitan City Tehran (1988–2018)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, November.
    9. Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman & Kh. Md. Nahiduzzaman, 2019. "Examining the Walking Accessibility, Willingness, and Travel Conditions of Residents in Saudi Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Monika Kopecká & Harini Nagendra & Andrew Millington, 2018. "Urban Land Systems: An Ecosystems Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4, January.
    11. Haonan Zhang & Hu Zhao & Saisai Meng & Yanghua Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Jobs-Housing Balance of Residents in Peri-Urbanization Areas in China: A Case Study of Zoucheng County," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Hua Xia & Shidong Ge & Xinyu Zhang & Gunwoo Kim & Yakai Lei & Yang Liu, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Green Infrastructure in an Agricultural Peri-Urban Area: A Case Study of Baisha District in Zhengzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-21, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Sarah Hasan & Wenzhong Shi & Xiaolin Zhu & Sawaid Abbas & Hafiz Usman Ahmed Khan, 2020. "Future Simulation of Land Use Changes in Rapidly Urbanizing South China Based on Land Change Modeler and Remote Sensing Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Harik, G. & Alameddine, I. & Zurayk, R. & El-Fadel, M., 2023. "Uncertainty in forecasting land cover land use at a watershed scale: Towards enhanced sustainable land management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    4. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Eshetu Yirsaw & Wei Wu & Xiaoping Shi & Habtamu Temesgen & Belew Bekele, 2017. "Land Use/Land Cover Change Modeling and the Prediction of Subsequent Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Area of China, the Su-Xi-Chang Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Meryem Qacami & Abdellatif Khattabi & Said Lahssini & Nabil Rifai & Modeste Meliho, 2023. "Land-cover/land-use change dynamics modeling based on land change modeler," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(1), pages 237-258, February.
    7. Siddique Ullah & Adnan Ahmad Tahir & Tahir Ali Akbar & Quazi K. Hassan & Ashraf Dewan & Asim Jahangir Khan & Mudassir Khan, 2019. "Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Relationships between Land Use Land Cover Changes and Surface Temperature over the Lower Himalayan Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Chunliu Gao & Deqiang Cheng & Javed Iqbal & Shunyu Yao, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of the Great Yellow River Region (GYRR) Land Cover and the Relationship Analysis with Mountain Hazards," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Xiuyan Zhao & Changhong Miao, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Changes and Simulation of Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Case of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    10. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    11. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Yunfeng Hu & Batu Nacun, 2018. "An Analysis of Land-Use Change and Grassland Degradation from a Policy Perspective in Inner Mongolia, China, 1990–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Taleghani, Mohammad, 2018. "Outdoor thermal comfort by different heat mitigation strategies- A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2011-2018.
    15. Bernard Fosu Frimpong & Frank Molkenthin, 2021. "Tracking Urban Expansion Using Random Forests for the Classification of Landsat Imagery (1986–2015) and Predicting Urban/Built-Up Areas for 2025: A Study of the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Gregory, Richard P., 2021. "Climate disasters, carbon dioxide, and financial fundamentals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 45-58.
    17. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Lyjak, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Agricultural Use of Land After Poland’s Accession to the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 517-533.
    19. Shaikh Shamim Hasan & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhihui Li & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Projections of Future Land Use in Bangladesh under the Background of Baseline, Ecological Protection and Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, March.
    20. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:36-:d:99952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.