IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/anresc/v61y2018i2d10.1007_s00168-018-0870-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume

Author

Listed:
  • I-Chun Tsai

    (National University of Kaohsiung)

Abstract

In this study, the ripple effect in four regional housing markets in the USA (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) was examined by analyzing housing prices, which is a method that has been primarily used in other studies, and the transfer of information in the transaction volume data of regional markets. First, the ripple index between regional housing markets was estimated using housing price and transaction volume. Findings revealed that the ripple effect in the transaction volume of regional housing markets was far more evident than that in housing prices and that the two types of ripple effect are negatively correlated. In other words, information between regional housing markets is either transferred through price or volume. In this study, monetary policy, overall economic performance, and new housing market were adopted as variables to analyze the cause and outcomes of the ripple effect. The results show that inflation stemming from an excess supply of money causes a ripple effect of rising regional housing prices. This money illusion leads contractors to believe that the housing market has increasing demand, motivating them to enter into new projects. Once these projects are completed, the increase in supply (new homes for sale) is reflected in the transaction volume of the regional housing market. In this instance, a stagnation in housing prices signifies that information is only transferred in the transaction volume. In short, the rise (housing boom) and fall (housing depression) of transaction volume affect interest rates in the mortgage market.

Suggested Citation

  • I-Chun Tsai, 2018. "The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(2), pages 351-373, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:61:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-018-0870-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-018-0870-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00168-018-0870-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00168-018-0870-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "Linear and nonlinear causality in the UK housing market: a regional approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 288-297.
    2. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    4. Jim Clayton & Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2010. "Price-volume Correlation in the Housing Market: Causality and Co-movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 14-40, January.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Steve Cook & Duncan Watson, 2016. "A new perspective on the ripple effect in the UK housing market: Comovement, cyclical subsamples and alternative indices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3048-3062, November.
    7. Charles K. Y. Leung & Garion C. K. Lau & Youngman C. F. Leong, 2002. "Testing Alternative Theories of the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 253-264.
    8. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    9. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2012. "Comovements among U.S. state housing prices: Evidence from fractional cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 936-942.
    10. Philipp Otto & Wolfgang Schmid, 2018. "Spatiotemporal analysis of German real-estate prices," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-72, January.
    11. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    12. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
    13. Tsai, I-Chun, 2014. "Ripple effect in house prices and trading volume in the UK housing market: New viewpoint and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 68-75.
    14. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    15. Ming-Chu Chiang & I-Chun Tsai, 2016. "Ripple effect and contagious effect in the US regional housing markets," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 55-82, January.
    16. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Marc W. Simpson, 2011. "Return and Volatility Transmission in U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 701-741, December.
    17. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    18. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2017. "The spatial dimension of US house prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(2), pages 466-481, February.
    19. Pijnenburg, Katharina, 2017. "The spatial dimension of US house prices," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 466-481.
    20. Steven Cook, 2005. "Detecting long-run relationships in regional house prices in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 107-118.
    21. I-Chun Tsai, 2015. "Spillover Effect between the Regional and the National Housing Markets in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1957-1976, December.
    22. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    23. Jarl G. Kallberg & Crocker H. Liu & Paolo Pasquariello, 2014. "On the Price Comovement of U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 71-108, March.
    24. Hort, Katinka, 2000. "Prices and turnover in the market for owner-occupied homes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-119, January.
    25. Steven Cook, 2003. "The Convergence of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(11), pages 2285-2294, October.
    26. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Miller, Stephen M., 2024. "Estimating U.S. housing price network connectedness: Evidence from dynamic Elastic Net, Lasso, and ridge vector autoregressive models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 349-362.
    2. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Dynamic price–volume causality in the American housing market: A signal of market conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 385-400.
    3. Zhou, Qian & Shao, Qinglong & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Jie, 2020. "Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Syed, Iqbal, 2021. "Information transmission between oil and housing markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2021. "Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "A regional decomposition of US housing prices and volume: market dynamics and Portfolio diversification," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 279-307, April.
    7. I-Chun Tsai, 2019. "Interregional correlations in the US housing market at three price tiers," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, August.
    8. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2019. "A Regional Decomposition of US Housing Prices and Volume: Market Dynamics and Economic Diversification Opportunities," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "A regional decomposition of US housing prices and volume: market dynamics and Portfolio diversification," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 279-307, April.
    2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2019. "A Regional Decomposition of US Housing Prices and Volume: Market Dynamics and Economic Diversification Opportunities," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    3. I-Chun Tsai, 2019. "Interregional correlations in the US housing market at three price tiers," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, August.
    4. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.
    5. Cipollini, Andrea & Parla, Fabio, 2020. "Housing market shocks in italy: A GVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Dynamic price–volume causality in the American housing market: A signal of market conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 385-400.
    7. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Miller, Stephen M., 2024. "Estimating U.S. housing price network connectedness: Evidence from dynamic Elastic Net, Lasso, and ridge vector autoregressive models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 349-362.
    8. Arslan, Yavuz & Kanık, Birol & Köksal, Bülent, 2015. "Anticipated vs. unanticipated house price movements and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 121-129.
    9. Dayong Zhang & Qiang Ji & Wan-Li Zhao & Nicholas J Horsewood, 2021. "Regional housing price dependency in the UK: A dynamic network approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(5), pages 1014-1031, April.
    10. Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Relationships among regional housing markets: Evidence on adjustments of housing burden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-318.
    11. Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Changes in social behavior and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional housing markets: Independence and risk," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 14-24.
    13. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    14. Tsai, I-Chun & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamic relationships between housing prices and trading volumes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-184.
    15. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    16. Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Syed, Iqbal, 2021. "Information transmission between oil and housing markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Teye, Alfred Larm & Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix, 2017. "Detecting spatial and temporal house price diffusion in the Netherlands: A Bayesian network approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 56-64.
    18. Alan Tidwell & Yan (Olivia) Lu & Junsoo Lee & Piyali Banerjee, 2023. "Nature of comovements in US state and MSA housing prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 959-989, July.
    19. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    20. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:61:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-018-0870-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.