IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v260y2018i1d10.1007_s10479-017-2496-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early warning on stock market bubbles via methods of optimization, clustering and inverse problems

Author

Listed:
  • Efsun Kürüm

    (Near East University)

  • Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

    (METU)

  • Cem Iyigun

    (METU)

Abstract

In order to avoid destructive results of financial bubbles which affect the entire economy, it is important to develop an early-warning signalling. By using optimization-supported tools, we introduce a new method for an early-warning signalling which approaches the bubble concept geometrically by determining and evaluating ellipsoids. We generate a volume-based index via minimum-volume covering ellipsoid clustering method, and to visualize these ellipsoids, we utilize Radon transform from the theory of the Inverse Problems. The analyses were conducted for US, Japan and China stock markets. In our study, we observe that when the bubble-burst time approaches, the volumes of the ellipsoids gradually decrease and, correspondingly, the figures obtained by Radon transform become more “brilliant”, i.e., more strongly warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Efsun Kürüm & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Early warning on stock market bubbles via methods of optimization, clustering and inverse problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 293-320, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:260:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-017-2496-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-017-2496-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-017-2496-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-017-2496-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    2. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    3. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    4. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
    6. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:639-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    9. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    10. Camerer, Colin, 1989. "Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
    11. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    12. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    13. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 2574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    15. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    16. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
    17. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    18. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    21. Peng Sun & Robert M. Freund, 2004. "Computation of Minimum-Volume Covering Ellipsoids," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 690-706, October.
    22. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
    2. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    3. Chinnadurai Kathiravan & Murugesan Selvam & Sankaran Venkateswar & S. Balakrishnan, 2021. "Investor behavior and weather factors: evidences from Asian region," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 349-373, April.
    4. Gurjeet Dhesi & Bilal Shakeel & Marcel Ausloos, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting the kurtosis and returns distributions of financial markets: irrational fractional Brownian motion model approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1397-1410, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    2. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    4. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    6. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    7. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    8. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J. & Monfort, A., 2020. "Stationary bubble equilibria in rational expectation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 714-735.
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    10. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    11. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
    12. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    13. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Kai-Hua & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Dumitrescu–Peculea, Adelina, 2017. "Do iron ore price bubbles occur?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 340-346.
    14. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    15. Friedrich Geiecke & Mark Trede, 2010. "A Direct Test of Rational Bubbles," CQE Working Papers 1310, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    16. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    17. Martínez-García, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2020. "Explosive dynamics in house prices? An exploration of financial market spillovers in housing markets around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    21. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:260:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-017-2496-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.