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Concurrent neural network: a model of competition between times series

Author

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  • Rémy Garnier

    (Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

Abstract

Competition between times series often arises in sales prediction, when similar products are on sale on a marketplace. This article provides a model of the presence of cannibalization between times series. This model creates a "competitiveness" function that depends on external features such as price and margin. It also provides a theoretical guaranty on the error of the model under some reasonable conditions, and implement this model using a neural network to compute this competitiveness function. This implementation outperforms other traditional time series methods and classical neural networks for market share prediction on a real-world data set. Moreover, it allows controlling underprediction, which plagues traditional forecasts models.

Suggested Citation

  • Rémy Garnier, 2022. "Concurrent neural network: a model of competition between times series," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 945-964, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:313:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04253-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04253-3
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