IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v268y2018i1d10.1007_s10479-016-2362-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial contagion behavior analysis based on complex network approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yangguang Zhu

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Feng Yang

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Wuyi Ye

    (University of Science and Technology of China)

Abstract

Recently, financial crisis occurred frequently, such as Asian crisis, sub-prime loan crisis and so on. And, financial contagion behavior analysis is an important subject in the field of international finance. This paper analyzes the financial contagion behavior of US subprime crisis and describes the co-movement behavior between US stock index return and the stock index returns of tested countries by complex network approach. The co-movement modes are defined by a coarse graining procedure, and then by weighted complex network models and evolutionary models transformation characteristics between the modes are analyzed. In order to analyze the sub-prime loan crisis contagion from US to other countries, we selected three main stock market indexes (China, Japan and Germany), S&P 500 index to present an empirical analysis, and the stock market index data is from 2006.1.1 to 2009.3.31. To analyze the contagion effect of the sub-prime crisis, the data is divided into three segments to be analyzed based on complex network approach. The empirical result shows that the co-movement modes of the S&P 500 index and the stock indexes of other countries are clustered around a few critical modes during the evolution. The co-movement modes have the characteristic of grouping, and the conversion of the co-movement modes requires an average of 3–5 days. This paper confirms the sub-prime crisis contagion behavior by comparing the parameters including degree, clustering coefficient and betweenness centrality in three stages. This research may provide further information between S&P 500 index and other stock indexes for the co-movement. More importantly, a new approach is provided for testing the financial contagion effect in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Yangguang Zhu & Feng Yang & Wuyi Ye, 2018. "Financial contagion behavior analysis based on complex network approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 268(1), pages 93-111, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:268:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2362-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-016-2362-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-016-2362-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-016-2362-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    2. Miccichè, Salvatore & Bonanno, Giovanni & Lillo, Fabrizio & N. Mantegna, Rosario, 2003. "Degree stability of a minimum spanning tree of price return and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 66-73.
    3. R. Mantegna, 1999. "Hierarchical structure in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 193-197, September.
    4. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2015. "Boolean network representation of contagion dynamics during a financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Goetz von Peter, 2007. "International banking centres: a network perspective," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Coelho, R. & Hutzler, S. & Repetowicz, P. & Richmond, P., 2007. "Sector analysis for a FTSE portfolio of stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 373(C), pages 615-626.
    7. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Ding, Yinghui & Zhong, Weiqiong, 2014. "Research on patterns in the fluctuation of the co-movement between crude oil futures and spot prices: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1067-1075.
    8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    9. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    10. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    11. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2011. "When is a Copula Constant? A Test for Changing Relationships," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 106-131, Winter.
    12. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    13. Onnela, J.-P. & Chakraborti, A. & Kaski, K. & Kertész, J., 2003. "Dynamic asset trees and Black Monday," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 247-252.
    14. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    15. Alexandra Dias & Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Testing for structural changes in exchange rates' dependence beyond linear correlation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 619-637.
    16. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & Boscia, Marian, 2008. "An ever-closer union? Examining the evolution of linkages of European equity markets via minimum spanning trees," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6319-6329.
    17. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    18. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Contagion around the October 1987 stock market crash," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 291-310, January.
    19. Ye, Wuyi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Miao, Baiqi, 2012. "Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 96-103.
    20. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramzi Benkraiem & Riadh Garfatta & Faten Lakhal & Imen Zorgati, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," Post-Print hal-03638322, HAL.
    2. Roy Cerqueti & Antonio Iovanella & Raffaele Mattera, 2024. "Clustering networked funded European research activities through rank-size laws," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 342(3), pages 1707-1735, November.
    3. Qifa Xu & Liukai Wang & Cuixia Jiang & Fu Jia & Lujie Chen, 2022. "Tail dependence network of new energy vehicle industry in mainland China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(1), pages 565-590, August.
    4. Nie, Chun-Xiao, 2022. "Analysis of critical events in the correlation dynamics of cryptocurrency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 586(C).
    5. Wafa Miled & Zied Ftiti & Jean-Michel Sahut, 2022. "Spatial contagion between financial markets: new evidence of asymmetric measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1183-1220, June.
    6. Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "Brexit and foreign exchange market expectations: Could it have been predicted?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 167-189, February.
    7. Roy Cerqueti & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2018. "Systemic risk assessment through high order clustering coefficient," Papers 1810.13250, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    8. Qiang Ji & Dayong Zhang & Yuqian Zhao, 2022. "Intra-day co-movements of crude oil futures: China and the international benchmarks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 77-103, June.
    9. Binghui Wu & Tingting Duan, 2019. "Nonlinear Dynamics Characteristic of Risk Contagion in Financial Market Based on Agent Modeling and Complex Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, June.
    10. Yu Zhao & Huaming Du & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data Perspective," Papers 2211.14997, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    11. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Piotr Łasak & Sławomir Wyciślak, 2022. "Dynamics in Complex Systems Amidst Crisis 2008+: Financial Regulatory and Supervisory Reflections," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    14. Matteo Cinelli & Giovanna Ferraro & Antonio Iovanella & Giulia Rotundo, 2021. "Assessing the impact of incomplete information on the resilience of financial networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 721-745, April.
    15. Roy Cerqueti & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi, 2021. "Systemic risk assessment through high order clustering coefficient," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1165-1187, April.
    16. Nie, Chun-Xiao & Song, Fu-Tie, 2023. "Stable versus fragile community structures in the correlation dynamics of Chinese industry indices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ye, Wuyi & Liu, Xiaoquan & Miao, Baiqi, 2012. "Measuring the subprime crisis contagion: Evidence of change point analysis of copula functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 96-103.
    2. Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.
    3. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    4. Ye, Wuyi & Jiang, Kunliang & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2021. "Financial contagion and the TIR-MIDAS model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    5. Cheong, Siew Ann & Fornia, Robert Paulo & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Kok, Jun Liang & Yim, Woei Shyr & Xu, Danny Yuan & Zhang, Yiting, 2011. "The Japanese economy in crises: A time series segmentation study," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
    7. Kantar, Ersin & Keskin, Mustafa, 2013. "The relationships between electricity consumption and GDP in Asian countries, using hierarchical structure methods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(22), pages 5678-5684.
    8. Zhang, Yiting & Lee, Gladys Hui Ting & Wong, Jian Cheng & Kok, Jun Liang & Prusty, Manamohan & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2011. "Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2020-2050.
    9. Ye, Wuyi & Luo, Kebing & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2017. "Time-varying quantile association regression model with applications to financial contagion and VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1015-1028.
    10. Georgios Bampinas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2017. "Oil and stock markets before and after financial crises: A local Gaussian correlation approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(12), pages 1179-1204, December.
    11. Lee, Junghoon & Youn, Janghyuk & Chang, Woojin, 2012. "Intraday volatility and network topological properties in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1354-1360.
    12. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    13. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Polyzos, Stathis, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic and spillover effects in stock markets: A financial network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    15. Silvo Dajcman, 2013. "Dependence between Croatian and European stock markets – A copula GARCH approach," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 31(2), pages 209-232.
    16. Sandoval, Leonidas Junior, 2013. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate at different times," Insper Working Papers wpe_319, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    17. Paulo Horta & Carlos Mendes & Isabel Vieira, 2010. "Contagion effects of the subprime crisis in the European NYSE Euronext markets," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(2), pages 115-140, August.
    18. Thijs Markwat, 2014. "The rise of global stock market crash probabilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 557-571, April.
    19. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    20. Roszkowska Paulina & Prorokowski Łukasz, 2013. "Model of Financial Crisis Contagion: A Survey-based Simulation by Means of the Modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 22-55, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:268:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2362-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.