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Continue, quit, restart probability model

Author

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  • Isaac M. Sonin

    (University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

  • Constantine Steinberg

    (University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

Abstract

We discuss a new applied probability model: there is a system whose evolution is described by a Markov chain (MC) with known transition matrix on a discrete state space and at each moment of a discrete time a decision maker can apply one of three possible actions: continue, quit, and restart MC in one of a finite number of fixed “restarting” points. Such a model is a generalization of a model due to Katehakis and Veinott (Math. Oper. Res. 12:262, 1987), where a restart to a unique point was allowed without any fee and quit action was absent. Both models are related to Gittins index and to another index defined in a Whittle family of stopping retirement problems. We propose a transparent recursive finite algorithm to solve our model by performing O(n 3) operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaac M. Sonin & Constantine Steinberg, 2016. "Continue, quit, restart probability model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 241(1), pages 295-318, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:241:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-012-1089-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-012-1089-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuri Kabanov & Robert Liptser, 2006. "From Stochastic Calculus to Mathematical Finance. The Shiryaev Festschrift," Post-Print hal-00488295, HAL.
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    7. Michael N. Katehakis & Arthur F. Veinott, 1987. "The Multi-Armed Bandit Problem: Decomposition and Computation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 262-268, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Amod J. Basnet & Isaac M. Sonin, 2022. "Parallel computing for Markov chains with islands and ports," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 317(2), pages 335-352, October.

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