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Financial market forecasting using a two-step kernel learning method for the support vector regression

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  • Li Wang
  • Ji Zhu

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a two-step kernel learning method based on the support vector regression (SVR) for financial time series forecasting. Given a number of candidate kernels, our method learns a sparse linear combination of these kernels so that the resulting kernel can be used to predict well on future data. The L 1 -norm regularization approach is used to achieve kernel learning. Since the regularization parameter must be carefully selected, to facilitate parameter tuning, we develop an efficient solution path algorithm that solves the optimal solutions for all possible values of the regularization parameter. Our kernel learning method has been applied to forecast the S&P500 and the NASDAQ market indices and showed promising results. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

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  • Li Wang & Ji Zhu, 2010. "Financial market forecasting using a two-step kernel learning method for the support vector regression," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 103-120, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:174:y:2010:i:1:p:103-120:10.1007/s10479-008-0357-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-008-0357-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    3. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1705-1770 is not listed on IDEAS
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    2. Engin Tas & Ayca Hatice Atli, 2024. "Stock Price Ranking by Learning Pairwise Preferences," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 513-528, February.
    3. Yang Zhao & Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Filipa Da Silva Fernandes, 2019. "Revisiting Fama–French factors' predictability with Bayesian modelling and copula‐based portfolio optimization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1443-1463, October.
    4. Mishra, Sasmita & Padhy, Sudarsan, 2019. "An efficient portfolio construction model using stock price predicted by support vector regression," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. George Chalamandaris & Nikos E. Vlachogiannakis, 2018. "Are financial ratios relevant for trading credit risk? Evidence from the CDS market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 395-440, July.
    6. Wenbo Wu & Jiaqi Chen & Liang Xu & Qingyun He & Michael L. Tindall, 2019. "A statistical learning approach for stock selection in the Chinese stock market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Han Lin Shang & Yang Yang & Fearghal Kearney, 2019. "Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: functional time series methods with dynamic updating," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 331-354, November.
    8. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
    9. Ying Liu & Yibing Chen & Sheng Wu & Geng Peng & Benfu Lv, 2015. "Composite leading search index: a preprocessing method of internet search data for stock trends prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 77-94, November.
    10. Filipa Fernandes & Charalampos Stasinakis & Zivile Zekaite, 2019. "Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 87-118, November.
    11. Shaogao Lv & Yongchao Hou & Hongwei Zhou, 2019. "Financial Market Directional Forecasting With Stacked Denoising Autoencoder," Papers 1912.00712, arXiv.org.
    12. Tristan Fletcher & John Shawe-Taylor, 2013. "Multiple Kernel Learning with Fisher Kernels for High Frequency Currency Prediction," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 217-240, August.

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