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Risk preference modeling with conditional average: an application to portfolio optimization

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  • Adam Krzemienowski

Abstract

The paper introduces a new risk measure called Conditional Average (CAVG), which was designed to cover typical attitudes towards risk for any type of distribution. It can be viewed as a generalization of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), two commonly used risk measures. The preference structure induced by CAVG has the interpretation in Yaari’s dual theory of choice under risk and relates to Tversky and Kahneman’s cumulative prospect theory. The measure is based on the new stochastic ordering called dual prospect stochastic dominance, which can be considered as a dual stochastic ordering to recently developed prospect stochastic dominance. In general, CAVG translates into a nonconvex quadratic programming problem, but in the case of a finite probability space it can also be expressed as a mixed-integer program. The paper also presents the results of computational studies designed to assess the preference modeling capabilities of the measure. The experimental analysis was performed on the asset allocation problem built on historical values of S&P 500 sub-industry indexes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

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  • Adam Krzemienowski, 2009. "Risk preference modeling with conditional average: an application to portfolio optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-95, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:165:y:2009:i:1:p:67-95:10.1007/s10479-008-0387-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-008-0387-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Liagkouras & K. Metaxiotis, 2018. "A new efficiently encoded multiobjective algorithm for the solution of the cardinality constrained portfolio optimization problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 267(1), pages 281-319, August.
    2. Dimitris Bertsimas & Allison O'Hair, 2013. "Learning Preferences Under Noise and Loss Aversion: An Optimization Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1190-1199, October.
    3. Zhiping Chen & Qianhui Hu, 2018. "On Coherent Risk Measures Induced by Convex Risk Measures," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 673-698, June.
    4. Fulga, Cristinca, 2016. "Portfolio optimization with disutility-based risk measure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(2), pages 541-553.
    5. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.
    6. Mafusalov, Alexander & Uryasev, Stan, 2016. "CVaR (superquantile) norm: Stochastic case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 200-208.
    7. K. Liagkouras & K. Metaxiotis, 2019. "Improving the performance of evolutionary algorithms: a new approach utilizing information from the evolutionary process and its application to the fuzzy portfolio optimization problem," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 272(1), pages 119-137, January.

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