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La expansion de Covid-19 en Mexico en 2020: un enfoque desde la econometria de series de tiempo

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Rodriguez Arana

    (Universidad Iberoamericana, Ciudad de Mexico)

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza las series de infecciones y muertes acumuladas por Covid-19 en Mexico entre fines de febrero y el 31 de diciembre de 2020. Ambas series resultan integradas de orden 1 (I(1)) y cointegradas, por lo cual se modelan con un vector de correccion de error (VEC). Diversas estimaciones con la tecnica VEC encuentran una elasticidad, de largo plazo, de muertes a contagios que es inferior a la unidad. Este resultado implica que el aumento en los contagios bajaria la tasa de letalidad de la enfermedad, aunque a un ritmo lento. El analisis es util para hacer extrapolaciones; si los contagios reales fueran 40 veces superiores a los registrados y las muertes fueran dos veces mayores a las oficiales, tres millones de infectados registrados implicaria un numero oficial de muertos de entre 190 mil y 250 mil, pero un numero real podia llegar hasta medio millon.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Rodriguez Arana, 2021. "La expansion de Covid-19 en Mexico en 2020: un enfoque desde la econometria de series de tiempo," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 1(3), pages 34-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:smx:journl:03:34:66
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    File URL: https://sobremexico-revista.ibero.mx/index.php/Revista_Sobre_Mexico/article/view/70
    File Function: First version, 2021
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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