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A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada

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  • Thomas A. Wilson

Abstract

In the first contribution to the Symposium included in this volume on Future Productivity Growth in Canada, Thomas Wilson of the University of Toronto presents forecasts based on the FOCUS macroeconometric model of the Canadian economy. This model projects labour productivity growth to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent over the 2002-2025 period. Wilson is somewhat more optimistic, seeing labour productivity growth of around 2 per cent per year. Reasons behind his more rosy scenario include a greater pace of capital deepening due to much slower labour force growth, the realization of productivity gains from past investments in information and communications technologies, a mitigation of future business cycles due to greater use of automatic stabilizers, and continued benefits from trade liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Wilson, 2003. "A Perspective on Future Productivity Growth in Canada," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 46-49, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:7:y:2003:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2003. "Population Change and Economic Growth: The Long-Term Outlook," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 102, McMaster University.
    2. Dungan, D. Peter & Wilson, Thomas A., 1991. "Macroeconomic effects and sensitivity analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 435-457.
    3. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-145, February.
    4. Peter Dungan, 2002. "The Impact of Productivity Growth on Government Fiscal Balances," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress, in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2002: Towards a Social Understanding of Productivity, volume 2, Centre for the Study of Living Standards;The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    5. Baldwin, John R. Gu, Wulong, 2003. "Participation in Export Markets and Productivity Performance in Canadian Manufacturing," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2003011e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    6. Benoit Robidoux, 2003. "Future Productivity Growth in Canada: The Role of the Service Sector," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 58-65, Fall.
    7. Thomas,Alex M., 2021. "Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108731997, January.
    8. Harris, Richard G., 1991. "Economic impact and transition effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 421-434.
    9. Tiff Macklem, 2003. "Future Productivity Growth in Canada: Comparing to the United States," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 7, pages 50-57, Fall.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arabinda Basistha, 2007. "Trend-cycle correlation, drift break and the estimation of trend and cycle in Canadian GDP," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 584-606, May.
    2. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck & Matthew Calver, 2015. "The Key Challenge for Canadian Public Policy: Generating Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth," CSLS Research Reports 2015-11, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOCUS Model; Macroeconomics; Simulation; Forecast; Long Term Growth; Total Factor Productivity; Labour Productivity; Canada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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