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Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?

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  • John Fernald

Abstract

Advanced economies have seen a notable slowdown in potential growth in the past decade or so. Demographics look much less favorable to output growth than in the past, and productivity growth has been only modest. The demographic and productivity factors driving this slowdown in potential growth look to be largely independent of the Great Recession. These factors do not at this point look likely to change rapidly, despite considerable uncertainty about the future contribution of artificial intelligence and robots.

Suggested Citation

  • John Fernald, 2018. "Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 138-148, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:35:y:2018:7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Michelle Alexopoulos and Jon Cohen, 2018. "Canadian Productivity Growth, Secular Stagnation, and Technological Change," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 113-137, Fall.
    3. F. J. Escribá‐Pérez & M. J. Murgui‐García & J. R. Ruiz‐Tamarit, 2023. "Endogenous capital stock and depreciation in the United States," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(1), pages 139-167, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; growth; output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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