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Wyjechać czy zostać? Determinanty zamiarów emigracji zarobkowej z Polski

Author

Listed:
  • Paweł Baranowski
  • Artur Gądek
  • Damian Stelmasiak
  • Szymon Wójcik

Abstract

Artykuł napisano w celu wyznaczenia czynników kształtujących gotowość do emigracji zarobkowej mieszkańców Polski. Posłużono się danymi indywidualnymi pochodzącymi z badania Diagnoza Społeczna 2015 i 2013. Wykorzystano dane z badań, w których respondenci odpowiadali na pytanie o zamiary emigracji zarobkowej, stanowiące ważną przesłankę dla faktycznej emigracji. Udzielone odpowiedzi miały charakter jakościowy (wyrażam chęć/nie wyrażam chęci). Z tego względu narzędziem badawczym był model logitowy, który zapewnia dobre własności statystyczne w przypadku objaśniania zmiennych binarnych. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że najważniejszymi czynnikami zwiększającymi prawdopodobieństwo wyrażenia zamiaru emigracji zarobkowej są: formalny status bezrobotnego, znajomość przynajmniej jednego języka obcego, pozyskanie w minionym roku nowych kwalifikacji oraz szeroko rozumiane niezadowolenie (z sytuacji w kraju, miejscu zamieszkania, własnej sytuacji finansowej). Natomiast czynnikami zmniejszającymi to prawdopodobieństwo są: wiek i płeć (osoby starsze i kobiety rzadziej deklarują zamiar emigracji) oraz wysoki poziom formalnego wykształcenia. Ponadto gotowość do emigracji jest także, w sposób istotny, kształtowana przez sytuację rodzinną respondenta.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Baranowski & Artur Gądek & Damian Stelmasiak & Szymon Wójcik, 2016. "Wyjechać czy zostać? Determinanty zamiarów emigracji zarobkowej z Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 69-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2016:i:4:p:69-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migracje; emigracja; diagnoza społeczna; model logitowy; mikroekonometria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation

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