IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2010i9p47-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Władysław Welfe
  • Waldemar Florczak

Abstract

The global financial crisis, and especially the recession that spread across Europe in 2009, also affected Poland. While the Polish economy continued to grow throughout 2009, its growth decelerated considerably in quarterly terms. The paper examines the determinants of the slowdown, based on a simulation macroeconomic model called W8D-2007. The model’s properties are briefly outlined, and then a baseline medium-term forecast is introduced and some simulation exercises are shown, dealing mainly with pessimistic scenarios. By means of simulations based on the W8D model, the paper tries to show the key factors behind the serious slowdown in the Polish economy in 2009. The model examines the impact of declining exports and FDI, on the one hand, and the growing investment risk and positive changes in household consumption, on the other. The possible impact of fiscal and monetary policies is also examined. The effects of a reduction of income tax rates and social contribution rates as well as the implications of an increased budget deficit are also shown, and finally the impact of declining interest rates on investment and consumer demand is evaluated. The likely effects of measures aimed at constraining the increase of unemployment rates are also analyzed. The results are compared with changing forecasts for the Polish economy presented during 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Władysław Welfe & Waldemar Florczak, 2010. "Slowdown of the Polish Economy: Model-Based Simulations," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 47-64.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2010:i:9:p:47-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.journalssystem.com/gna/pdf-101157-32722
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald G. Bodkin & Lawrence R. Klein & Kanta Marwah, 1991. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Acosta, Juan & Cherrier, Beatrice, 2021. "The Transformation Of Economic Analysis At The Board Of Governors Of The Federal Reserve System During The 1960s," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 323-349, September.
    2. F. J. H. Don & J. P. Verbruggen, 2006. "Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 60(2), pages 145-170, May.
    3. Acosta, Juan & Rancan, Antonella & Sergi, Francesco, 2022. "Centralised and Decentralised Approaches to Multi-Country Macroeconometric Modelling at the Commission of the European Communities: The Short-Lived EUROLINK Model," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22081, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    4. Boyer, Robert, 1992. "La crise de la macroéconomie, une conséquence de la méconnaissance des institutions?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 43-68, mars et j.
    5. Bjerkholt, Olav, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein 1920–2013: Notes on the early years," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 767-784.
    6. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Pinzón-Fuchs, Erich & Sergi, Francesco & Renault, Matthieu, 2019. "Reacting to the Lucas Critique: The Keynesians' Replies," OSF Preprints qxh46, Center for Open Science.
    7. Aris Spanos & Niki Papadopoulou, 2013. "A Small Macroeconometric Model for the Cyprus Economy," Working Papers 2013-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    9. Erich Pinzón-Fuchs, 2018. "Lawrence R. Klein and the making of large-scale macro-econometric modeling, 1938-1955," Documentos CEDE 16161, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Kevin D. Hoover, 2014. "Man and machine in macroeconomics," Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, L'Harmattan, issue 67, pages 15-34.
    11. Qadri, Faisal Sultan & Waheed, Abdul, 2014. "Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 66-76.
    12. Jaanika Meriküll, 2004. "Macroeconometric Modelling of the Estonian Economy," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, in: Modelling the Economies of the Baltic Sea Region, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 138-166, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    13. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    14. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Shuntaro Shishido, 1994. "Macro and Industry Implications of Voluntary Export Restraints on US-Japan Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 737-757, September.
    15. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    16. Valadkhani, Abbas, 1997. "Simulation of Aggregate Demand Impacts on the Sectoral Value Added in the Iranian Economy," MPRA Paper 50385, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Michel DeVroey, 2012. "Dead or Alive? The Ebbs and Flows of Keynesianism Over the History of Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Niraj Poudyal & Aris Spanos, 2022. "Model Validation and DSGE Modeling," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, April.
    20. Bos, Frits, 2013. "Meaning and measurement of national accounts statistics," MPRA Paper 44970, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2010:i:9:p:47-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.