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Test of Fiscal Sustainability and Causality Hypotheses for Switzerland

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  • Silika Prohl

Abstract

This paper examines the causality between the Swiss federal governments revenue and expenditure over the 1900 to 2002 period by estimating the short- and longrun relation within an error-correction approach that places more emphasis on the long-run relation as a source of the causal link. The results suggest both that the fiscal policy is consistent with the governmental budget constraint - revenue and expenditure are cointegrated, and revenue cause expenditure and vice versa. There is also evidence that World War II had a significant impact on the stability of the cointegrating relation between revenue and expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Silika Prohl, 2010. "Test of Fiscal Sustainability and Causality Hypotheses for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(II), pages 481-506, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2010-ii-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficit; Cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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