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De la (non-)soutenabilité des politiques budgétaires en Suisse

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  • Eric Mottu

Abstract

This paper applies to Switzerland an indicator of the sustainability of fiscal policies developed by BLANCHARD and others for the OECD. A fiscal policy is sustainable if it stabilizes the debt/GDP ratio over a certain period of time; thus, the primary surplus must cover the interest payments on the debt which exceed the growth rate of the economy. We calculate the adjustment required to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio, knowing the forecasts on revenues, spending, interest rates and growth for a given time horizon. The fiscal policy of the Swiss public sector was "too sustainable" in the 80's: taxes could have been lowered, or spending increased. On the contrary, it is unsustainable from 1990 to 2000: taxes should bee raised or spending reduced to prevent the rapid growth of the debt/GDP ratio. From 1996 to 2000, the public sector should increase taxes or reduce spending by 0.2% of GDP in order to stabilize the debt ratio at 49.6% of GDP. But since this adjustment will not fully take place, the debt ratio will only be stabilized in 2000 at the higher level of 53.2%. Although the indicator of sustainability is largely an accounting measure, we believe it provides a simple and useful benchmark for assessing fiscal policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Mottu, 1997. "De la (non-)soutenabilité des politiques budgétaires en Suisse," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(III), pages 395-420, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:1997-iii-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas J. Jordan, 1994. "Der Stand der schweizerischen Fiskalpolitik. Eine Analyse anhand neuer Fiskalindikatoren," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(II), pages 193-206, June.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
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