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Оптимальная инфляция и инфляционное таргетирование: страновой опыт // Optimal Inflation and Inflation Targeting: International Experience

Author

Listed:
  • E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva V.

    (Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA)

  • A. Grebenkina M.

    (Institute of Applied Economic Research, RANEPA)

  • Е. Синельникова-Мурылева В.

    (Институт прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС)

  • А. Гребенкина М.

    (Институт прикладных экономических исследований РАНХиГС)

Abstract

The relationship between optimal, threshold and target inflation regarding the inflation targeting policy has been analyzed on the example of some countries. The objective of the article is to identify the features of achieving the inflation target by countries with different levels of economic development. As part of the descriptive analysis, the country comparison method has been applied according to the parameters of estimated inflation thresholds, actual targets and permissible targeting ranges, sustainability of targets and time periods. In terms of the case study approach, countryspecifc factors for changing the inflation target and the threshold inflation rate have been studied. The relationship between optimal, threshold and target inflation has been substantiated. The experience of achieving the inflation target in 17 countries in 2009–2018 has been presented. The actually targeted and estimated threshold levels of inflation have been compared. The article reveals the features of achieving the inflation target by countries with different levels of disclosure and economic development. It has been concluded that the inflation threshold level is the upper limit of the actually established target inflation rate or its range. Despite the downward trend in estimates of the threshold level, the downward trend in target inflation has not been pronounced. Open economy and sensitivity to changes in external conditions is a precedence factor of interest rate policy specifc to emerging market countries. As a result, the countries have to choose more flexible policy, accommodative inflation targeting, or the policy of “leading indicators”. It is focused primarily on managing inflation expectations. Despite the ambiguity of the external environment, the inflation targeting policy in Russia retains the potential for anchoring inflation expectations at a chosen target level. В работе анализируется связь понятий оптимального, порогового и целевого уровня инфляции в рамках политики инфляционного таргетирования на примере отдельных стран. Цель статьи — выявление особенностей достижения цели по инфляции странами с разным уровнем развития экономики. В рамках дескриптивного анализа применен метод странового сопоставления по параметрам оцененных пороговых уровней инфляции, фактических целей и допустимых диапазонов таргетирования, устойчивости целей и диапазонов во времени. В рамках подхода кейс-стади исследованы специфические для отдельных стран факторы изменения цели по инфляции и порогового уровня инфляции. Обоснована связь понятий оптимального, порогового и целевого уровня инфляции. Представлен опыт достижения цели по инфляции в 17 странах в 2009–2018 гг. Проведено сопоставление фактически таргетируемых и оцененных пороговых уровней инфляции. Выявлены особенности достижения цели по инфляции в странах в зависимости от степени открытости и уровня экономического развития. Сделан вывод, что пороговый уровень инфляции выступает верхней границей фактически устанавливаемого странами целевого уровня инфляции или его диапазона. Несмотря на тенденцию к снижению оценок порогового уровня, тенденция к снижению целевого уровня инфляции не выражена. Открытость экономики и чувствительность к изменению внешних условий выступает фактором прецедентности процентной политики, характерной для стран с формирующимся рынком. В результате страны сталкиваются с выбором политики более гибкого, аккомодационного инфляционного таргетирования либо политики «опережающих индикаторов». Она ориентирована в первую очередь на управление инфляционными ожиданиями. Несмотря на неопределенность внешних условий, политика инфляционного таргетирования в России сохраняет потенциал «заякоривания» инфляционных ожиданий на выбранном целевом уровне.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva V. & A. Grebenkina M. & Е. Синельникова-Мурылева В. & А. Гребенкина М., 2019. "Оптимальная инфляция и инфляционное таргетирование: страновой опыт // Optimal Inflation and Inflation Targeting: International Experience," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(1), pages 49-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2019:i:1:p:49-65
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    References listed on IDEAS

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