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Управление демографическим риском в пенсионных системах // Managing the Demographic Risk of Pension Systems

Author

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  • P. Kowalczyk-Rólczyńska

    (University of Economics)

  • П. Ковальчик-Рульчинская

    (Экономический университет)

Abstract

Demographic changes observed at present on the European markets strongly determine the sustainability of pension systems. The most important changes in this context include: increase of life expectancy, decline of fertility rate, ageing of societies, and migration flows. All the above trends pose a major risk, mostly for public pension systems that finance the distribution of retirement benefits from mandatory contributions collected from earners in the working-age population. Pension policies should be designed to minimize the demographic risk and limit the risk of old-age poverty. The risk of longevity, associated with the steady increase of life expectancy rates, is another important aspect to be managed by all institutions involved in effective distribution of pension benefits, be it from the base part of the pension fund or any supplementary funds. This paper aims to emphasize the significance of demographic risk in a pension system, identify the types of demographic risk and the associated risk management methods, and to present the projected impact of demographic risk upon the replacement rate. Демографические изменения, которые наблюдаются в европейских странах, жестко регламентируют устойчивость пенсионных систем. Наиболее существенными изменениями в этом плане являются: рост продолжительности жизни, падение коэффициента рождаемости, процесс старения общества, направления миграционных потоков. Указанные изменения создают основные риски, особенно для публичных пенсионных систем, распределяющих пенсионные накопления из средств, отчисляемых работающим населением. Пенсионная система должна минимизировать риски и ограничить риск попадания пожилых людей в зону бедности. В статье подчеркнута значимость анализа демографических рисков для пенсионных систем, идентифицированы типы демографических рисков и связанных с ними методов управления рисками, а также представлен прогноз влияния демографического риска на коэффициент замещения.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Kowalczyk-Rólczyńska & П. Ковальчик-Рульчинская, 2016. "Управление демографическим риском в пенсионных системах // Managing the Demographic Risk of Pension Systems," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 4(4), pages 23-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:00rbes:y:2016:i:4:p:23-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ragnar Norberg, 2013. "Optimal hedging of demographic risk in life insurance," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 197-222, January.
    2. Blake, D. & Cairns, A. J. G. & Dowd, K., 2006. "Living with Mortality: Longevity Bonds and Other Mortality-Linked Securities," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 153-197, March.
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