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Cointegration and Long-Run Asset Allocation

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  • Ravi Bansal
  • Dana Kiku

Abstract

We show that economic restrictions of cointegration between asset cash flows and aggregate consumption have important implications for return dynamics and optimal portfolio rules, particularly at long investment horizons. When cash flows and consumption share a common stochastic trend (i.e., are cointegrated), temporary deviations between their levels forecast long-horizon dividend growth rates and returns, and consequently, alter the term profile of risks and expected returns. We show that the optimal asset allocation based on the error-correction vector autoregression (EC-VAR) specification can be quite different relative to a traditional VAR that ignores the cointegrating relation. Unlike the EC-VAR, the commonly used VAR approach to model expected returns focuses on short-run forecasts and can considerably miss on long-horizon return dynamics, and hence, the optimal portfolio mix in the presence of cointegration. We develop and implement methods to account for parameter uncertainty in the EC-VAR setup and highlight the importance of the error-correction channel for optimal portfolio decisions at various investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku, 2011. "Cointegration and Long-Run Asset Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 161-173, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:29:y:2011:i:1:p:161-173
    DOI: 10.1198/jbes.2010.08062
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    Cited by:

    1. Claude Bergeron, 2019. "Recursive preferences, long-run risks, and stock valuation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 996-1004.
    2. Almeida, Caio & Brandao, Diego, 2019. "Measuring Long Run Risks for Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 39(1), July.
    3. Feldkircher, Martin & Gruber, Thomas & Huber, Florian, 2020. "International effects of a compression of euro area yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    5. Claude Bergeron & Tov Assogbavi & Jean-pierre Gueyie, 2020. "Conditional capital asset pricing model, long-run risk, and stock valuation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 77-86.
    6. Claude Bergeron, 2024. "Inflation, risk, and dividend growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(7), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Sant’Anna, Leonardo R. & Filomena, Tiago P. & Caldeira, João F., 2017. "Index tracking and enhanced indexing using cointegration and correlation with endogenous portfolio selection," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 146-157.
    8. Bergeron, Claude, 2013. "Dividend sensitivity to economic factors, stock valuation, and long-run risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 184-195.
    9. Claude Bergeron, 2013. "Dividend growth, stock valuation, and long-run risk," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(4), pages 547-559, October.
    10. Favero, Carlo A. & Melone, Alessandro, 2020. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor-Portfolio Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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