IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sbe/breart/v21y2001i2a2754.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Instability and chaotic dynamics in stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Ohashi, Alberto Masayoshi F .

Abstract

In this paper we examine certain properties of the Dow Jones and the Nikkey indices, investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic nonlinear structures. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis, we construct a local measurement of randomness which identifies some extreme events and their impact on the randomness of the systems. Our results suggest no evidence of chaos in the data. In fact, GARCH processes explain most of the nonlinear dependence in the Dow Jones daily returns and the estimated Kolmogorov entropy for the Nikkey index diverges, conversely to what one would expect if the data followed a chaotic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ohashi, Alberto Masayoshi F ., 2001. "Instability and chaotic dynamics in stock returns," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(2), November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:21:y:2001:i:2:a:2754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://periodicos.fgv.br/bre/article/view/2754
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jánosi, Imre M & Janecskó, Balázs & Kondor, Imre, 1999. "Statistical analysis of 5 s index data of the Budapest Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 111-124.
    2. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1971. "When Can Price Be Arbitraged Efficiently? A Limit to the Validity of the Random Walk and Martingale Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 225-236, August.
    3. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    5. Ravi Vaidyanathan & Tim Krehbiel, 1992. "Does the S&P 500 futures mispricing series exhibit nonlinear dependence across time?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 659-677, December.
    6. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-368, July.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Ausloos, M., 2000. "Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 48-65.
    9. Absil, P.-A & Sepulchre, R & Bilge, A & Gérard, P, 1999. "Nonlinear analysis of cardiac rhythm fluctuations using DFA method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 235-244.
    10. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Real-Time Equity Market Indices: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 864-880, July.
    11. John Barkoulas & Nickolaos Travlos, 1998. "Chaos in an emerging capital market? The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 231-243.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McKenzie, Michael D., 2001. "Chaotic behavior in national stock market indices: New evidence from the close returns test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-53.
    2. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    3. Marisa Faggini & Bruna Bruno & Anna Parziale, 2019. "Does Chaos Matter in Financial Time Series Analysis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 18-24.
    4. M. Shibley Sadique, 2011. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 77-88, June.
    5. Harris, Richard D. F. & Kucukozmen, C. Coskun, 2001. "Linear and nonlinear dependence in Turkish equity returns and its consequences for financial risk management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 481-492, November.
    6. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    7. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Tsen Wong, 2003. "Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis, Behavioural Finance and Episodic Transient Dependencies: The Case of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Finance 0312012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Holger Dette & Marc Hallin & Tobias Kley & Stanislav Volgushev, 2011. "Of Copulas, Quantiles, Ranks and Spectra - An L1-Approach to Spectral Analysis," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2011-038, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Ayan Bhattacharya & Rudra Sensarma, 2013. "Non-linearities in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence from India," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 165-175, July.
    10. Bunyamin Demir & Nesrin Alptekin & Yilmaz Kilicaslan & Mehmet Ergen & Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu, 2015. "Forecasting Agricultural Production: A Chaotic Dynamic Approach," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 65-80, June.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2009. "Is There Any International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(1), pages 392-406.
    13. Samir Saadi & Devinder Gandhi & Khaled Elmawazini, 2006. "On the validity of conventional statistical tests given evidence of non-synchronous trading and non-linear dynamics in returns generating process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 301-305.
    14. Borusyak, K., 2011. "Nonlinear Dynamics of the Russian Stock Market in Problems of Risk Management," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 11, pages 85-105.
    15. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2011. "A search for long‐range dependence and chaotic structure in Indian stock market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 96-104, May.
    16. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    17. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy & Raffiee, Kambiz, 2001. "Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 405-425, July.
    18. Kian-Ping Lim & Hock-Ann Lee & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2003. "International Diversification Benefits in ASEAN Stock Markets: a Revisit," Finance 0308003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Samet G nay, 2015. "Chaotic Structure of the BRIC Countries and Turkey's Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 515-522.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:21:y:2001:i:2:a:2754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sbeeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.