IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/vision/v23y2019i4p357-363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Study Applying Log Periodic Structures for Prediction of Realty Market Crashes in India

Author

Listed:
  • Varun Sarda
  • Yamini Karmarkar
  • Neha Lakhotia Sarda

Abstract

The real estate market comprise of one of the most basic requirements of a human being that is shelter. A lot of money of the owners of the properties is invested in this market across the globe. The volatility in the real estate or realty market affects each and every human being. The crashes in the market lead to erosion of a large amount of value in terms of money, so if a technique is developed that can predict the upcoming crash, then this can help avoid losses of the investors. The present study tries to analyse downward movements in the Indian realty market by applying log-periodic structures. The period of the study is 1997–2011. The crashes were not predicted by using log-periodic structures as per the findings of the study. Thus the study concludes that it may not be appropriate to apply log-periodic structures to predict crashes of realty market in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Varun Sarda & Yamini Karmarkar & Neha Lakhotia Sarda, 2019. "An Empirical Study Applying Log Periodic Structures for Prediction of Realty Market Crashes in India," Vision, , vol. 23(4), pages 357-363, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:23:y:2019:i:4:p:357-363
    DOI: 10.1177/0972262919850919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972262919850919
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972262919850919?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2008. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 243-260.
    2. Gee Kwang Randolph Tan & Xiao Qin, 2005. "Bubbles, Can We Spot Them? Crashes, Can We Predict Them?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 206, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    4. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    5. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    6. Zsuzsanna Fluck & Burton G. Malkiel & Richard E. Quandt, 1997. "The Predictability Of Stock Returns: A Cross-Sectional Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 176-183, May.
    7. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    8. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    2. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.
    7. Adelina Gschwandtner & Michael Hauser, 2016. "Profit persistence and stock returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(37), pages 3538-3549, August.
    8. Shlomo Zilca, 2017. "Day-of-the-week returns and mood: an exterior template approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    10. Zainudin Arsad & J. Andrew Coutts, 1997. "Security price anomalies in the London International Stock Exchange: a 60 year perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 455-464.
    11. Lauterbach, Beni & Ungar, Meyer, 1995. "Real vs. nominal stock return seasonalities: empirical evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 133-147.
    12. Nisar, Sabahat & Asif, Rabia & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Testing the Presence of the January Effect in Developed Economies," MPRA Paper 112548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    14. Hudson, Robert S. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2015. "Calculating and comparing security returns is harder than you think: A comparison between logarithmic and simple returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-162.
    15. Wing-Keung Wong & Aman Agarwal & Nee-Tat Wong, 2006. "The Disappearing Calendar Anomalies in the Singapore Stock Market," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 123-139, Jul-Dec.
    16. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    17. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    18. Vicente Meneu & Angel Pardo, "undated". "El efecto "día festivo" en la Bolsa espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 95, FEDEA.
    19. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.
    20. Li, Kun & Cursio, Joseph D. & Jiang, Mengfei & Liang, Xi, 2019. "The significance of calendar effects in the electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 487-494.
    21. Autore, Don M. & Jiang, Danling, 2019. "The preholiday corporate announcement effect," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 61-82.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:23:y:2019:i:4:p:357-363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.