IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/ajfa88/v2y2010i2p41-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Preholiday returns and volatility in the Thai stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Nopphon Tangjitprom

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the holiday effect in Thailand. The holiday effect is the phenomenon in which the stock returns are abnormally high before holidays. There is no complete explanation for this phenomenon though there are many studies that state that the holiday effect has existed in the stock markets all over the world. Although there are many studies that have addressed the existence of abnormal returns during holiday periods a few studies have provided specific reasons for the existence of this phenomenon. This paper aims to study the holiday effect in returns and volatility of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Moreover, this study examines whether the abnormal stock returns observed are associated with higher volatility during preholiday periods. Furthermore, it examines whether the holiday effect depends on the number of days in each holiday period and whether it varies between state and cultural holidays. Various GARCH models are employed to capture the volatility clustering nature of the stock market. Out of the three GARCH models considered, EGARCH (1,1) model shows the best performance. The results show that preholiday returns and volatility are abnormally high. Furthermore, the longer holiday periods tend to show higher preholiday returns. However, the impact of cultural factors on abnormal returns prior to cultural holidays is not so pronounced when compared to the impact of cultural factors on abnormal returns prior to non-cultural holidays. Keywords- Holiday, Calendar anomalies, Market Efficiency, Stock Exchange of Thailand JEL Classifications- G1, C01, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Nopphon Tangjitprom, 2010. "Preholiday returns and volatility in the Thai stock market," Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 4154-4154, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:ajfa88:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:41-54
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ajfa/article/download/525/818
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ajfa/article/view/525
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    3. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    4. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-1614, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    8. Lakonishok, Josef & Smidt, Seymour, 1984. "Volume and turn-of-the-year behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 435-455, September.
    9. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    10. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    11. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lerskullawat, Polwat, 2019. "Hedging Effectiveness on the Thailand Futures Exchange Market," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 26(2), December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 95-112.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
    3. Ramona DUMITRIU & Razvan STEFANESCU, 2017. "The Behavior of Stock Prices during Lent and Advent," Proceedings RCE 2017, Editura Lumen, vol. 0, pages 95-112, November.
    4. Mohamed CHIKHI & Ali BENDOB & Ahmed Ramzi SIAGH, 2019. "Day-of-the-week and month-of-the-year effects on French Small-Cap Volatility: the role of asymmetry and long memory," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-248, December.
    5. Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    6. Chowdhury, Anup & Uddin, Moshfique & Anderson, Keith, 2022. "Trading behaviour and market sentiment: Firm-level evidence from an emerging Islamic market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Alin Marius ANDRIEŞ & Iulian IHNATOV & Nicu SPRINCEAN, 2017. "Do Seasonal Anomalies Still Exist In Central And Eastern European Countries? A Conditional Variance Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 60-83, December.
    8. Haque Mahfuzul & Hassan M. Kabir & Maroney Neal C & Sackley William H, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 18-41, April.
    9. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    10. Syed Muhammad Majid Shah & Fahad Abdullah, 2015. "A Study of Day of the Week Effect in Karachi Stock Exchange During Different Political Regimes in Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 7(1), pages 41-66, April.
    11. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "DOW effects in returns and in volatility of stock markets during quiet and turbulent times," MPRA Paper 47218, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Apr 2013.
    12. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    13. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga & Karidis, Socrates, 2018. "Intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 905-915.
    14. Suliman Zakaria Suliman Abdalla, 2015. "An Investigation of the Month-of-The-Year Effect for the Sudanese Stock Market," Working Papers 924, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2015.
    15. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "The impact of the Great Lent and of the Nativity Fast on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 89023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Dec 2016.
    16. Dimitris Kenourgios & Aristeidis Samitas & Spyros Papathanasiou, 2005. "The Day of the Week Effect Patterns on Stock Market Return and Volatility: Evidence for the Athens Stock Exchange," Finance 0512028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sakhr Miss & Michel Charifzadeh & Tim A. Herberger, 2020. "Revisiting the monday effect: a replication study for the German stock market," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 257-273, May.
    18. Halil Kiymaz & Hakan Berument, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
    19. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    20. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:ajfa88:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:41-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ajfa .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.