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A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel

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  • Patricia L. Mokhtarian

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis, CA 95616, USA, plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu)

Abstract

A multiplicative model is proposed as a framework for examining the current knowledge in forecasting the demand for telecommuting and the resulting transport impacts. A running illustrative example (containing a base and a future case) is developed, using plausible values for each factor in the model. The base case suggests that 6.1 per cent of the workforce may be currently telecommuting, with 1.5 per cent doing so on any given day, eliminating at most 1 per cent of total household vehicle-miles travelled. Future reductions could be smaller as commute distances of telecommuters become more average and as the stimulation effect of telecommuting grows. In any event, it is likely that—due to counteracting forces—the aggregate travel impacts will remain relatively flat into the future, even if the amount of telecommuting increases considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia L. Mokhtarian, 1998. "A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(2), pages 215-241, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:35:y:1998:i:2:p:215-241
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098984952
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mannering, Jill S. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1995. "Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt08s817dr, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1990. "A Typology of Relationships Between Telecommunications And Transportation," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4rx589m0, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Mokhtarian, Patricia L & Koenig, Brett E & Henderson, Dennis K, 1995. "The Travel and Emissions Impacts of Telecommuting for the State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6rw695kc, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 1997. "Modeling the desire to telecommute: The importance of attitudinal factors in behavioral models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-50, January.
    5. Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1991. "Telecommuting and Travel: State of the Practice, State of the Art," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4zc486ph, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 1996. "Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting 2: A Case of the Preferred Impossible Alternative," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7br7039r, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Henderson, Dennis K. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1996. "Impacts of Center-Based Telecommuting on Travel and Emissions: Analysis of the Puget Sound Demonstration Project," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1250382t, University of California Transportation Center.
    8. Mokhtarian, Patricia L, 1991. "Defining Telecommuting," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt35c4q71r, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
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    16. Bagley, Michael N. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1997. "Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7200521q, University of California Transportation Center.
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