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Assessing the Impact of Shocks on International Tourism Demand for Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Ana C.M. Daniel

    (ESTG – Instituto Politécnico da Guarda and UDI – Unidade para o Desenvolvimento do Interior, Guarda, Portugal)

  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

    (Banco de Portugal, Economic Research Department, Av Almirante Reis 71, 6th floor, 1150-012 Lisbon, Portugal; NOVA School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa and CEFAGE)

Abstract

In this paper, a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used to model international tourism demand from the five main inbound tourism countries for Portugal: Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands and the UK. Given the non-stationarity of the variables considered, vector error correction models (VECMs) are estimated. These are then used to analyse the impulse response functions in order to determine how international tourism demand for Portugal reacts to shocks to some of its important drivers, such as income, the cost of living in Portugal and the cost of living in Spain (the last as representative of the price in the main competing market with Portugal).

Suggested Citation

  • Ana C.M. Daniel & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Shocks on International Tourism Demand for Portugal," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(3), pages 617-634, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:617-634
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    3. Christine Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(1), pages 69-81, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anappattath Muhammed Salim & Thomas Shiby M., 2023. "Demand for Kerala’s International Tourism by the Top Three Source Markets: A Comparative Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 208-226, October.
    2. Manuela, Wilfred S. & de Vera, Manuel J., 2015. "The impact of government failure on tourism in the Philippines," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 11-22.
    3. Andraz, Jorge M. & Norte, Nélia M. & Gonçalves, Hugo S., 2015. "Effects of tourism on regional asymmetries: Empirical evidence for Portugal," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 257-267.

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