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Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices

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  • Awokuse, Titus O.

Abstract

Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector autoregression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study's findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock.

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  • Awokuse, Titus O., 2005. "Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 226-237, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:agrerw:v:34:y:2005:i:02:p:226-237_00
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    2. Nisa Sansel Tandogan Aktepe & İhsan Erdem Kayral, 2024. "Unraveling the Major Determinants behind Price Changes in Four Selected Representative Agricultural Products," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, May.
    3. Goodness C. AYE & Rangan GUPTA, 2012. "The Effects Of Monetary Policy On Real Farm Prices In South Africa," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1), pages 147-158.
    4. Jiawu Dai & Liurui Deng & Lan Yang, 2021. "Testing the absorber hypothesis of exchange rates for the overshooting of agricultural prices in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(8), pages 327-336.
    5. Md Rafayet Alam & Scott Gilbert, 2017. "Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor†augmented VAR analyses," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 15-27, January.
    6. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Price Discovery in Agricultural Commodities: The Shifting Relationship Between Spot and Future Prices," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114237, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Tan, Ying & Sha, Wenbiao & Paudel, Krishna, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Price Index in China: A FAVAR Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    9. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Determinants of the Agricultural Exports in Azerbaijan," EconStor Preprints 226347, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Yu, Xiaohua, 2014. "Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-183.
    11. Williams, J., 2013. "Wheat and corn price skewness and volatility: Risk management implications for farmers and end users," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 21, pages 1-20.

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