IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v15y2009i3p547-565.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of Outbound Italian Tourism Demand: A Monthly Dynamic EC-LAIDS Model

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Cortés-Jiménez

    (Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute and AQR-IREA, Nottingham University Business School, Jubilee Campus, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK)

  • Ramesh Durbarry

    (School of Sustainable Development and Tourism, University of Technology, Mauritius, La Tour Koenig, Pointe aux Sables, Mauritius)

  • Manuela Pulina

Abstract

An almost ideal demand system with monthly frequency, in both long-run and dynamic forms, is used to quantify the responsiveness of Italian tourism demand to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, expenditure and unexpected one-off events in four main European destinations. Short-term elasticities, which are crucial for policies regarding own price, as well as cross prices and expenditure elasticities are derived from the dynamic model. It is also found that the dynamic model outperforms the long-run model in forecasting accuracy. This paper provides useful information for policymakers to maintain high market shares of Italian tourism demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Ramesh Durbarry & Manuela Pulina, 2009. "Estimation of Outbound Italian Tourism Demand: A Monthly Dynamic EC-LAIDS Model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 547-565, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:547-565
    DOI: 10.5367/000000009789036594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/000000009789036594
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5367/000000009789036594?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray, Ranjan, 1985. "Specification and time series estimation of dynamic Gorman Polar Form demand systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 357-374.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Blanciforti, Laura Ann & Green, Richard D. & King, Gordon A., 1986. "U.S. Consumer Behavior over the Postwar Period: An Almost Ideal Demand System Analysis," Monographs, University of California, Davis, Giannini Foundation, number 11939, December.
    5. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
    6. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, November.
    7. Hargreaves, Colin P. (ed.), 1994. "Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773924.
    8. M. Thea Sinclair, 1997. "Tourism and Economic Development: A Survey," Studies in Economics 9703, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Saayman, Andrea & Viljoen, Armand & Saayman, Melville, 2018. "Africa’s outbound tourism: An Almost Ideal Demand System perspective," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 141-158.
    3. Neelu Seetaram, 2012. "Estimating Demand Elasticities for Australia's International Outbound Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 999-1017, October.
    4. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2014. "The Tourism Industry in Italy during the Great Recession (2008-12): What Data Show and Suggest," MPRA Paper 60999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gholipour, Hassan Fereidouni & Tajaddini, Reza & Al-mulali, Usama, 2014. "Does personal freedom influence outbound tourism?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 19-25.
    6. Meleddu, Marta & Pulina, Manuela, 2016. "Evaluation of individuals’ intention to pay a premium price for ecotourism: An exploratory study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 67-78.
    7. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Cao, Zheng & Wu, Doris Chenguang, 2013. "How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 247-256.
    8. Etzo, Ivan & Massidda, Carla & Piras, Romano, 2014. "Migration and outbound tourism: Evidence from Italy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 235-249.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & Sahar Aghazadeh & George N Ike, 2021. "Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 971-990, August.
    10. Marie-Louise Mangion & Chris Cooper & Isabel Cortés-Jimenez & Ramesh Durbarry, 2012. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidization on Tourism Demand and Destination Competitiveness through the AIDS Model: An Evidence-Based Approach to Tourism Policymaking," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(6), pages 1251-1272, December.
    11. Balli, Faruk & Ghassan, Hassan & Al-Jeefri, Hisham, 2016. "Toward Understanding Outbound GCC International Tourism: The Role of Expatriates and Institutional Quality," MPRA Paper 91177, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2017.
    12. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2015. "Do Economic Crises Lead Tourists to Closer Destinations? An Analysis of Italy's Regional Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 5250, CESifo.
    13. William Addessi & Bianca Biagi & Maria Giovanna Brandano, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of the introduction of the euro on tourist flows: A synthetic control approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1554-1575, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    2. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel & Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad, 2018. "Main determinants of export-oriented bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP) demand from the north-western regions of Spain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 112-119.
    3. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    4. Pulina, M. & O'Brien, R.J., 2002. "Monthly, annual and quarterly frequencies: a comparison of models for tourism in Sardinia and bounded rationality," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 206, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    5. Marie-Louise Mangion & Ramesh Durbarry & M. Thea Sinclair, 2005. "Tourism Competitiveness: Price and Quality," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(1), pages 45-68, March.
    6. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    7. Robertico Croes & Manuel Antonio Rivera, 2010. "Testing the Empirical Link between Tourism and Competitiveness: Evidence from Puerto Rico," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 217-234, March.
    8. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    9. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    10. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    11. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    12. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    13. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    14. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    15. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:157-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Choi-Meng Leong & Chin-Hong Puah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Evan Lau, 2010. "Testing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Malaysia Using Alternative Monetary Aggregation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(3), pages 321-338, August.
    17. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    18. Hauser, Shmuel & Kedar-Levy, Haim & Milo, Orit, 2022. "Price discovery during parallel stocks and options preopening: Information distortion and hints of manipulation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    19. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    20. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    21. Panagiotis Pegkas & Constantinos Tsamadias, 2017. "Are There Separate Effects of Male and Female Higher Education on Economic Growth? Evidence from Greece," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(1), pages 279-293, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:547-565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.