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Dynamics in the Specification of Tourism Demand Models

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  • Clive L. Morley

    (Graduate School of Business, RMIT University, GPO Box 2476V, Melbourne 3001, Australia)

Abstract

The specification of a tourism demand model now commonly includes lagged demand as an explanatory variable. This raises issues in the formulation and interpretation of econometric tourism demand models. It is argued that a simple lagged demand term is not sufficient to account for the dynamics of tourism demand. Many alternative specifications of the dynamic elements and form have been used in tourism demand modelling. This paper helps to resolve the issue of how the dynamics should be specified. It does this by a thorough review of the dynamic elements relevant to tourism demand and by demonstrating that the specification does make a difference in practice. Consideration of different formulations of the dynamics of tourism demand, drawing on theory and specific characteristics of tourism, leads to the recommendation of an ARIMA with explanatory variables model form.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive L. Morley, 2009. "Dynamics in the Specification of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 23-39, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:1:p:23-39
    DOI: 10.5367/000000009787536654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth (ed.), 2006. "International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2827.
    2. Clive L. Morley, 1996. "A Comparison of Three Methods for Estimating Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 223-234, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tran Van Hoa & Lindsay Turner & Jo Vu, 2018. "Economic impact of Chinese tourism on Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 677-689, September.
    2. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Lizhi Xu & Shouyang Wang & Jingjing Li & Ling Tang & Yanmin Shao, 2019. "Modelling international tourism flows to China: A panel data analysis with the gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1047-1069, November.
    4. Song, Haiyan & Lin, Shanshan & Witt, Stephen F. & Zhang, Xinyan, 2011. "Impact of financial/economic crisis on demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 172-186.
    5. Albaladejo, Isabel P. & González-Martínez, María Isabel & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2016. "Nonconstant reputation effect in a dynamic tourism demand model for Spain," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 132-139.
    6. Sakkarin Nonthapot & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2013. "Demand of Thai Tourists to Lao PDR: An Ardl Approach," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 279-285, March.
    7. Schiff, Aaron & Becken, Susanne, 2011. "Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-575.
    8. Mingming Hu & Haiyan Song, 2020. "Data source combination for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1248-1265, November.
    9. Balli, Hatice Ozer & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Balli, Faruk, 2019. "Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 204-214.

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